Statistical Unfolding Of Elementary Particle Spectra: Empirical Bayes Estimation And Bias-Corrected Uncertainty Quantification

We consider the high energy physics unfolding problem where the goal is to estimate the spectrum of elementary particles given observations distorted by the limited resolution of a particle detector. This important statistical inverse problem arising in data analysis at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN consists in estimating the intensity function of an indirectly observed Poisson point process. Unfolding typically proceeds in two steps: one first produces a regularized point estimate of the unknown intensity and then uses the variability of this estimator to form frequentist confidence intervals that quantify the uncertainty of the solution. In this paper, we propose forming the point estimate using empirical Bayes estimation which enables a data-driven choice of the regularization strength through marginal maximum likelihood estimation. Observing that neither Bayesian credible intervals nor standard bootstrap confidence intervals succeed in achieving good frequentist coverage in this problem due to the inherent bias of the regularized point estimate, we introduce an iteratively bias-corrected bootstrap technique for constructing improved confidence intervals. We show using simulations that this enables us to achieve nearly nominal frequentist coverage with only a modest increase in interval length. The proposed methodology is applied to unfolding the Z boson invariant mass spectrum as measured in the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider.

Uncertainty quantification in unfolding elementary particle spectra at the Large Hadron Collider

Mikael Johan Kuusela

This thesis studies statistical inference in the high energy physics unfolding problem, which is an ill-posed inverse problem arising in data analysis at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. Any measurement made at the LHC is smeared by the finite resolution of the particle detectors and the goal in unfolding is to use these smeared measurements to make nonparametric inferences about the underlying particle spectrum. Mathematically the problem consists in inferring the intensity function of an indirectly observed Poisson point process. Rigorous uncertainty quantification of the unfolded spectrum is of central importance to particle physicists. The problem is typically solved by first forming a regularized point estimator in the unfolded space and then using the variability of this estimator to form frequentist confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals, however, underestimate the uncertainty, since they neglect the bias that is used to regularize the problem. We demonstrate that, as a result, conventional statistical techniques as well as the methods that are presently used at the LHC yield confidence intervals which may suffer from severe undercoverage in realistic unfolding scenarios. We propose two complementary ways of addressing this issue. The first approach applies to situations where the unfolded spectrum is expected to be a smooth function and consists in using an iterative bias-correction technique for debiasing the unfolded point estimator obtained using a roughness penalty. We demonstrate that basing the uncertainties on the variability of the bias-corrected point estimator provides significantly improved coverage with only a modest increase in the length of the confidence intervals, even when the amount of bias-correction is chosen in a data-driven way. We compare the iterative bias-correction to an alternative debiasing technique based on undersmoothing and find that, in several situations, bias-correction provides shorter confidence intervals than undersmoothing. The new methodology is applied to unfolding the Z boson invariant mass spectrum measured in the CMS experiment at the LHC. The second approach exploits the fact that a significant portion of LHC particle spectra are known to have a steeply falling shape. A physically justified way of regularizing such spectra is to impose shape constraints in the form of positivity, monotonicity and convexity. Moreover, when the shape constraints are applied to an unfolded confidence set, one can regularize the length of the confidence intervals without sacrificing coverage. More specifically, we form shape-constrained confidence intervals by considering all those spectra that satisfy the shape constraints and fit the smeared data within a given confidence level. This enables us to derive regularized unfolded uncertainties which have by construction guaranteed simultaneous finite-sample coverage, provided that the true spectrum satisfies the shape constraints. The uncertainties are conservative, but still usefully tight. The method is demonstrated using simulations designed to mimic unfolding the inclusive jet transverse momentum spectrum at the LHC.

EPFL2016

Shape-Constrained Uncertainty Quantification In Unfolding Steeply Falling Elementary Particle Spectra

Mikael Johan Kuusela

The high energy physics unfolding problem is an important statistical inverse problem in data analysis at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The goal of unfolding is to make nonparametric inferences about a particle spectrum from measurements smeared by the finite resolution of the particle detectors. Previous unfolding methods use ad hoc discretization and regularization, resulting in confidence intervals that can have significantly lower coverage than their nominal level. Instead of regularizing using a roughness penalty or stopping iterative methods early, we impose physically motivated shape constraints: positivity, monotonicity, and convexity. We quantify the uncertainty by constructing a nonparametric confidence set for the true spectrum, consisting of all those spectra that satisfy the shape constraints and that predict the observations within an appropriately calibrated level of fit. Projecting that set produces simultaneous confidence intervals for all functionals of the spectrum, including averages within bins. The confidence intervals have guaranteed conservative frequentist finite-sample coverage in the important and challenging class of unfolding problems for steeply falling particle spectra. We demonstrate the method using simulations that mimic unfolding the inclusive jet transverse momentum spectrum at the LHC. The shape-constrained intervals provide usefully tight conservative inferences, while the conventional methods suffer from severe undercoverage.

Inst Mathematical Statistics2017

Covariance Estimation for Random Surfaces beyond Separability

Tomas Masák

This thesis focuses on non-parametric covariance estimation for random surfaces, i.e.~functional data on a two-dimensional domain. Non-parametric covariance estimation lies at the heart of functional data analysis, andconsiderations of statistical and computational efficiency often compel the use of separability of the covariance, when working with random surfaces. We seek to provide efficient alternatives to this ambivalent assumption.In Chapter 2, we study a setting where the covariance structure may fail to be separable locally -- either due to noise contamination or due to the presence of a non-separable short-range dependent signal component. That is, the covariance is an additive perturbation of a separable component by a non-separable but banded component. We introduce non-parametric estimators hinging on shifted partial tracing -- a novel concept enjoying strong denoising properties. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology on a data set of mortality surfaces.In Chapter 3, we propose a distinctive decomposition of the covariance, which allows us to understand separability as an unconventional form of low-rankness. From this perspective, a separable covariance has rank one. Allowing for a higher rank suggests a structured class in which any covariance can be approximated up to an arbitrary precision. The key notion of the partial inner product allows us to generalize the power iteration method to general Hilbert spaces and estimate the aforementioned decomposition from data. Truncation and retention of the leading terms automatically induces a non-parametric estimator of the covariance, whose parsimony is dictated by the truncation level. Advantages of this approach, allowing for estimation beyond separability, are demonstrated on the task of classification of EEG signals.While Chapters 2 and 3 propose several generalizations of separability in the densely sampled regime, Chapter 4 deals with the sparse regime, where the latent surfaces are observed only at few irregular locations. Here, a separable covariance estimator based on local linear smoothers is proposed, which is the first non-parametric utilization of separability in the sparse regime. The assumption of separability reduces the intrinsically four-dimensional smoothing problem into several two-dimensional smoothers and allows the proposed estimator to retain the classical minimax-optimal convergence rate for two-dimensional smoothers. The proposed methodology is used for a qualitative analysis of implied volatility surfaces corresponding to call options, and for prediction of the latent surfaces based on information from the entire data set, allowing for uncertainty quantification. Our quantitative results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the common approach of pre-smoothing every implied volatility surface separately.Throughout the thesis, we put emphasis on computational aspects, since those are the main reason behind the immense popularity of separability. We show that the covariance structures of Chapters 2 and 3 come with no (asymptotic) computational overhead relative to assuming separability. In fact, the proposed covariance structures can be estimated and manipulated with the same asymptotic costs as the separable model. In particular, we develop numerical algorithms that can be used for efficient inversion, as required e.g.~for prediction. All the methods are implemented in R and available on~GitHub.

EPFL2022

Covariance Estimation for Random Surfaces beyond Separability

Tomas Masák

EPFL2022

Uncertainty quantification in unfolding elementary particle spectra at the Large Hadron Collider

Mikael Johan Kuusela

EPFL2016