Evaluating predictive performance of sensor configurations in wind studies around buildings

A great challenge associated with urban growth is to design for energy efficient and healthy built environments. Exploiting the potential for natural ventilation in buildings might improve pedestrian comfort and lower cooling loads, particularly in warm and tropical climates. As a result, predicting wind behavior around naturally ventilated buildings has become important and one of the most common prediction approaches is computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. While accurate wind prediction is essential, simulation is complex and predictions are often inconsistent with field measurements. Discrepancies are due to the large uncertainties associated with modeling assumptions, as well as the high spatial and temporal climatic variability that influences sensor data. This paper proposes metrics to estimate the expected predictive performance of sensor configurations and assesses their usefulness in improving simulation predictions. The evaluations are based on the premise that measurement data are best used for falsifying model instances whose predictions are inconsistent with the data. The potential of the predictive performance metrics is demonstrated using full-scale high-rise buildings in Singapore. The metrics are applied to assess previously proposed sensor configurations. Results show that the performance metrics successfully evaluate the robustness of sensor configurations with respect to reducing uncertainty of wind predictions at other unmeasured locations. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model-based data-interpretation framework for improving wind predictions around buildings

Ian Smith, Didier Vernay

Although Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are often used to assess wind conditions around buildings, the accuracy of such simulations is often unknown. This paper proposes a data-interpretation framework that uses multiple simulations in combination with measurement data to improve the accuracy of wind predictions. Multiple simulations are generated through varying sets of parameter values. Sets of parameter values are falsified and thus not used for predictions if differences between measurement data and simulation predictions, for any measurement location, are larger than an estimate of uncertainty bounds. The bounds are defined by combining measurement and modeling uncertainties at sensor locations. The framework accounts for time-dependent and spatially-distributed modeling uncertainties that are present in CFD simulations of wind. The framework is applied to the case study of the CREATE Tower located at the National University of Singapore. Values for time-dependent inlet conditions, as well as values for the roughness of surrounding buildings, are identified with measurements carried out around the CREATE Tower. Results show that, on average, ranges of horizontal wind-speed predictions at an unmeasured location have been decreased by 65% when measurement data are used. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elsevier2015

Improving simulation predictions of wind around buildings using measurements through system identification techniques

Ian Smith, Didier Vernay

Wind behavior in urban areas is receiving increasing interest from city planners and architects. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are often employed to assess wind behavior around buildings. However, the accuracy of CFD simulations is often unknown. Measurements can be used to help understand wind behavior around buildings more accurately. In this paper, a model-based data interpretation framework is presented to integrate information obtained from measurements with simulation results. Multiple model instances are generated from a model class through assigning values to parameters that are not known precisely, including those for inlet wind conditions. The information provided by measurements is used to falsify model instances whose predictions do not match measurements and to estimate the parameter values of the simulation. The information content of measurement data depends on levels of measurement and modeling uncertainties at sensor locations. Modeling uncertainties are those associated with the model class such as effects associated with turbulent fluctuations or thermal processes. The model-based data interpretation framework is applied to the study of the wind behavior around the buildings of the Treelodge@Punggol estate, located in Singapore. The framework incorporates modeling and measurement uncertainties and provides probability-based predictions at unmeasured locations. This paper illustrates the possibility to improve approximations of modeling uncertainties through avoiding falsification of the entire set of model instances. It is concluded that the framework has the potential to infer time-dependent sets of parameter values and to predict time-dependent responses at unmeasured locations.

Elsevier2015

Hierarchical sensor placement using joint entropy and the effect of modeling error

Maria Papadopoulou, Ian Smith

Good prediction of the behavior of wind around buildings improves designs for natural ventilation in warm climates. However wind modeling is complex, predictions are often inaccurate due to the large uncertainties in parameter values. The goal of this work is to enhance wind prediction around buildings using measurements through implementing a multiple-model system-identification approach. The success of system-identification approaches depends directly upon the location and number of sensors. Therefore, this research proposes a methodology for optimal sensor configuration based on hierarchical sensor placement involving calculations of prediction-value joint entropy. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models are generated to create a discrete population of possible wind-flow predictions, which are then used to identify optimal sensor locations. Optimal sensor configurations are revealed using the proposed methodology and considering the effect of systematic and spatially distributed modeling errors, as well as the common information between sensor locations. The methodology is applied to a full-scale case study and optimum configurations are evaluated for their ability to falsify models and improve predictions at locations where no measurements have been taken. It is concluded that a sensor placement strategy using joint entropy is able to lead to predictions of wind characteristics around buildings and capture short-term wind variability more effectively than sequential strategies, which maximize entropy.

MDPI AG2014