Integrating models across temporal and spatial scales to simulate landscape patterns and dynamics in mountain pasture-woodlands

Alexander Ludwig Johannes Peringer
Springer, 2017
Article

Résumé

Context Pasture-woodlands are semi-natural landscapes that result from the combined influences of climate, management, and intrinsic vegetation dynamics. These landscapes are sensitive to future changes in land use and climate, but our ability to predict the impact on ecosystem service provisioning is limited due to the disparate scales in time and space that govern their dynamics. Objectives To develop a process-based model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes and the provisioning of ecosystem services (i.e., livestock forage, woody biomass and landscape heterogeneity). Methods We modified a dynamic forest landscape model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes in Switzerland. This involved including an annual herbaceous layer, selective grazing from cattle, and interactions between grazing and tree recruitment. Results were evaluated within a particular pasture, and then the model was used to simulate regional vegetation patterns and livestock suitability for a similar to 98,000 ha landscape in the Jura Vaudois region. Results The proportion of vegetation cover types at the pasture level (i.e., open, semi-open and closed forests) was well represented, but the spatial distribution of trees was only broadly similar. The entire Jura Vaudois region was simulated to be highly suitable for livestock, with only a small proportion being unsuitable due to steep slopes and high tree cover. High and low elevation pastures were equally suitable for livestock, as lower forage production at higher elevations was compensated by reduced tree cover. Conclusions The modified model is valuable for assessing landscape to regional patterns in vegetation and livestock, and offers a platform to evaluate how climate and management impact ecosystem services.

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Alexander Ludwig Johannes Peringer
Springer, 2017
Article

Résumé

Official source

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/228681?ln=fr

À propos de ce résultat

Concepts associés (19)

Concepts associés

Chargement

Publications associées (25)

Publications associées

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Subalpine Pasture-Woodlands in a Changing Climate

Konstantin Svetlozarov Gavazov

Climate change in temperate mountain systems and associated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation are expected to have strong implications for vegetation productivity, species diversity and carbon turnover in subalpine grasslands. Little is known, however, about the interaction between the effects of climate change and those of local land use management and possible changes in landscape structure. Pasture woodlands in the Swiss Jura Mountains are a traditional landscape, resulting from a long-lived sustainable use of grasslands and woodlands, and as such provide a suite of important ecosystem services to human society. These range from carbon sequestration and biodiversity preservation, to provision of timber and forage for livestock, and last but not least an aesthetic value, much appreciated by tourism. In this thesis various aspects of ecosystem functioning have been studied, investigating the combined effects of experimental climate change and land use on structurally different wooded pastures. An altitudinal gradient method has been used to simulate future climate change conditions, by imposing warmer and drier climate on subalpine turfs transplanted at lower elevation. The resulting gradient in mean annual temperature and precipitation – ranging from cold and wet in the subalpine zone, to warm and dry in the colline zone – has allowed for the detection of tipping points and altered states of ecosystem functioning in response to the treatments. The method employed provided also the possibility for a direct comparison of three land use types: unwooded pastures, sparsely wooded pastures, and densely wooded pastures (the result of pasture management intensity), in their response to climate perturbation. During the four years of experimental work, a series of observations have been made at the plot scale (square metre) in terms of plant performance and biogeochemical cycles, as well as at the landscape scale (hectare) in terms of forage production. A general threshold level for ecosystem resistance to experimental climate change was detected between the moderate IPCC scenario (+2 K mean annual temperature; -20 % annual precipitation) and the intensive IPCC scenario (+4 K mean annual temperature; -40 % annual precipitation). A concomitant gradient in ecosystem response to climate change was observed across the three land use types. The intensively managed unwooded pasture type was consistently more affected by the experimental treatment and rarely exhibited signs of resistance, especially under the intense climate change scenario. A drastic loss of plant species diversity, reduction of herbaceous biomass, impaired litter decomposition and soil microbial metabolic activity have all contributed to the altered state of ecosystem functioning. In contrast, the two extensively managed wooded pasture types showed considerable resistance to climate perturbation in terms of both above and belowground ecosystem processes. The reported inter-annual variation in herbaceous diversity and biomass production within these land use types demonstrated their resilience (recovery) potential too. Using a modelling approach for upscaling these results to the heterogeneous landscape of pasture woodlands in the Swiss Jura Mountains, has proven that extensively used wooded pastures could grant sustainable ecosystem services in terms of forage provision for cattle under climate change. Considering that the two experimental climate change intensities implemented this study are the projected ‘best’ and ‘worst’ case scenarios for the coming decades, the reported resistance of wooded pastures to climate change has to be embraced, and sustainable land use set as a goal in high altitude mountain pastures.

EPFL2013

Chargement

Theoretical and Experimental Studies of Dendritic Metacommunities

Francesco Carrara

The present thesis deals with the understanding of the origins and the mechanisms of maintenance of biodiversity in natural landscapes, in particular by identifying key processes that define large-scale patterns of abundance and diversity. Biological communities often occur in spatially structured habitats where connectivity directly affects dispersal and metacommunity processes. Recent theoretical work suggests that dispersal constrained by the connectivity of specific habitat structures affects diversity patterns and species interactions. This is particularly relevant in dendritic networks epitomized by fluvial ecological corridors. This thesis addresses whether connectivity alone can explain observed features of biodiversity and selectively promote different components of community composition in river-like landscapes, such as local species richness or the among-community similarity. The relevance of this thesis lies in the major ecological challenges posed by the topic, and its fundamental importance to conservation biology. The studies pursued herein are also deemed relevant because of the influence of the spatial connectivity and dispersal on population dynamics and of the relevance of biodiversity to ecosystem functioning. Mechanisms of species coexistence were investigated with a blend of theoretical tools (broadly related to statistical mechanics and the theory of stochastic processes) and experimental work using laboratory microbial communities. The research tools ranged from aspects of modern coexistence theory in a local perspective to the recent concept of the metacommunity in spatial ecology, within a unified framework. The study of biodiversity in riverine ecosystems guided by observational data has been addressed by combining theoretical metacommunity models with laboratory experiments. The results are diverse. First, they show experimentally that connectivity per se shapes key components of biodiversity in metacommunities. Local dispersal in isotropic lattice landscapes homogenizes local species richness and leads to pronounced spatial persistence. By contrast, dispersal along dendritic landscapes leads to higher variability in local diversity and among-community composition. Although headwaters exhibit relatively lower species richness, they are crucial for the maintenance of regional biodiversity. By suitably arranging patch sizes within river-like networks the effect of local habitat capacity (i.e., the patch size) and dendritic connectivity on biodiversity can be experimentally disentangled in aquatic microcosm metacommunities. It is shown in this thesis that species coexistence and community assembly depend on intricate, non-trivial interactions of local community capacity and network positioning. Furthermore, an interaction of spatial arrangement of habitat capacity and dispersal along river-like networks also affects a key ecosystem descriptor, namely regional evenness. High regional evenness in community composition is found only in landscapes preserving geomorphological scaling properties of patch sizes. In riverine environments some of the rarer species sustained regionally more abundant populations and were better able to track their own niche requirements compared to landscapes with homogeneous patch size or landscapes with spatially uncorrelated patch size. All the experimental results were supported and extended by a theoretical analysis where the above mechanisms have been generalized. This thesis provides the first direct experimental evidence that spatially constrained dendritic connectivity is a key factor for community composition and population persistence in riverine landscapes. As such, this thesis assesses a longstanding issue in spatial community ecology. It offers unique insights into the ecological forces structuring natural communities in a key ecosytem, and demonstrates principles that can be further tested in theoretical metacommunity models possibly to be extended to real riverine ecosystems. Taken together, the analyses show how the structure of ecological networks interacts with the spatial environmental matrix in determining biodiversity patterns and the functioning of biological communities. The analyses also suggest that altering the natural linkage between dendritic connectivity and patch size strongly affects community properties at multiple scales. The first part of this thesis (chapters 2 and 3) addresses key aspects of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research where the combination of theory-guided experiments and theoretical investigations shows how a stochastic implementation of population dynamics proves fundamental for key community properties such as species persistence and community stability. The diversity-productivity and diversity-stability relationships are explored. Both experimental findings and the results of a stochastic model fitted to the experimental interaction matrix, suggest the emergence of strong stabilizing forces when species from different functional groups interact in the same environment, increasing species coexistence and community biomass production. The last part (chapter 6) provides a synthesis of this thesis work, in that it aims at unifying aspects from niche-theory, usually adopted in spatially implicit models, with those characteristic of a spatially explicit context from a typical real-life mountainous regions. It is dedicated to the possible explanation for a macroecological pattern routinely observed from organisms in different domains of life, that is, the mid-elevational peak in local species richness. Guided by empirical observations on diversity of macroinvertebrates in Swiss river basins, a theoretical ansatz is provided which is deemed to capture the essential geomorphological drivers and controls relating species-fitness to altitude. A set of overarching conclusions and perspectives for future research are discussed in the concluding chapter.

EPFL2013

Chargement

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Silvopastoral systems are traditional components of the landscape in the Swiss Jura Mountains, and are promising approaches for the sustainable management of mountain areas worldwide. Due to complex vegetation dynamics, pasture-woodlands are very vulnerable to the currently occurring land use and climate changes. Therefore, management requires integrative long-term predictions of successional trends. We present a refined version of the spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model WoodPaM with improved climate sensitivity of simulated vegetation. We investigate pasture-woodland dynamics by applying an innovative combination of retrospective simulations starting in the Middle Ages with prospective simulations following two climate change scenarios. The retrospective simulations demonstrate the strong dependency of the landscape mosaic on both climate and management. In high elevation mountain pastures, climate cooling during the Little Ice Age hindered simulated tree regeneration and reduced forage production of grasslands. Both led to an increase in open grassland and to a structural simplification of the landscape. In turn, climate warming afterwards showed the opposite effect. At lower elevations, high cattle stocking rates generally dominate simulated succession, leading to a slow development of quite homogenous landscapes whose structures are hardly affected by historical climate variability. Aerial photographs suggest that logging and windstorms critically shaped the current landscape, both homogenizing mosaic structures that emerge from selective grazing. Simulations of climate change scenarios suggest delayed but inevitable structural changes in the landscape mosaic and a temporary breakdown of the ecosystem service wood production. The population of currently dominating Norway spruce collapses due to simulated drought. Spruce is only slowly replaced either by beech under moderate warming or by Scots pine under extreme warming. In general, the shift in tree species dominance results in landscapes of less structural richness than today. In order to maintain the mosaic structure of pasture-woodlands, we recommend a future increase in cattle stocking on mountain pastures. The (re-) introduction of mixed herds (cattle with horses, sheep, and goats) could mitigate the simulated trend towards structural homogenization of the forest-grassland mosaic because diverse browsing effects selectively control tree regeneration and would counteract simulated forest encroachment. This could prevent the loss of species-rich open grasslands and forest-grassland ecotones. Forest management should respect forest-grassland mosaics and ecotones by following the traditional selective felling of single trees instead of large clear-cutting. Additionally, beech regeneration should be promoted from now on in order to smoothen tree species replacement with warming and to ensure the continuous provision of forest ecosystem services.

Resilience Alliance2013

Chargement

Subalpine Pasture-Woodlands in a Changing Climate

Konstantin Svetlozarov Gavazov

EPFL2013

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Resilience Alliance2013

Theoretical and Experimental Studies of Dendritic Metacommunities

Francesco Carrara

EPFL2013