Publication
This thesis describes the development of three conceptual models built to serve as decision support tools in liberalised electricity markets. The introduction of competition, higher uncertainty and decentralised planning requires new planning and analysis tools on the medium to long term to support decision making at the level of the industry as well as at the level of the market authorities. We have mainly developed models of market simulation and investment decision by investigating how multi-agent systems can contribute to the understanding of the decentralised nature of competitive decision making in a liberalised electricity market. The thesis focused particularly on bilateral transactions arguing that such transaction processes are specially relevant from the point of view of risk management when considering medium to long term decisions (for both portfolio management and investment decision making). We have used decision analysis under uncertainty and dynamic modeling approaches under a multi-agent framework by considering that such approaches are more adequate in a competitive environment due to the market actors' exposure to risks and need for adaptation in a changing environment. Monthly spot market prices are taken into account through scenarios that reproduce volatility by lognormal processes. Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantify the risks among which the spot prices are taken as the most significant source of uncertainty. The main objective of this thesis is to contribute to the problem of modeling investment decisions in new generation capacities using electricity market simulation from a planning point of view. This global objective is driven according to the: Modeling of the bilateral transaction processes between generation companies and demand companies at the level of wholesale market by taking into account the possible tradeoffs between spot and bilateral markets. The transaction processes models represent the market simulation modules by: Distinguishing the different forms the transaction processes can take (negotiation vs. auctions). Modeling of the market actors' portfolio management from a planning perspective by taking into account the market uncertainties (sales portfolio for generation companies and supply portfolios for demand companies). Modeling of the investment decisions in new electricity generation power plants. "Negotiation based portfolio management in a liberalised electricity market: a multiagent approach" The first model of the thesis formalizes the transactions of demand companies that would have to face a single generation company. The transaction process is here modeled as a bilateral negotiation algorithm between buyers and a seller. The negotiation is driven on two issues: prices and quantities of monthly contracts. It is simulated as a succession of offers and counteroffers during a limited period of time. Each market actor is searching for efficient transactions that satisfy its objectives, pref