Trajectory generation for aircraft subject to dynamic weather uncertainty
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Polynomial autoregressions have been most of the time discarded as being unrealistic. Indeed, for such processes to be stationary, strong assumptions on the parameters and on the noise are necessary. For example, the distribution of the latter has to have ...
This article focuses on activities of corporate foresight that constitute one of the core elements of strategic innovation management. Hence, corporate foresight plays a crucial role for the mid- to longterm competitiveness of firms. It typically comprises ...
Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context through extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, un ...
Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context, extrapolating regular patterns in series. However unpredictable e ...
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This paper presents a score that can be used for evaluating probabilistic forecasts of multicategory events. The score is a reinterpretation of the logarithmic score or ignorance score, now formulated as the relative entropy or Kullback–Leibler divergence ...
For companies proposing a large offer of products and services, it is important to identify the products for which the forecast quality is critical. The objective of this paper is to propose a strategic analysis of the products in order to determine priori ...
Chevroulet's research focuses on the interface between transportation, environment, and energy. He is investigating how assessment and forecasting methods may be used to improve project design. In his talk, he looks at ways to connect assessment and foreca ...
The development of a hydrological forecasting model is conditioned by the available data collected in the entire hydrological catchment for which discharge has to be predicted. The forecast quality not only depends on the available historical data but also ...
This paper discusses the use of simple good sense in the spatial prediction of rainfall measurements in Switzerland. The method consists of a forecast based on the values of the available observations combined with topographic knowledge of the Swiss territ ...
Statistical model selection criteria provide an informed choice of the model with best external (i.e., out-of-sample) validity. Therefore they guard against overfitting ("data snooping"). We implement several model selection criteria in order to verify rec ...
