Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
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This paper presents a score that can be used for evaluating probabilistic forecasts of multicategory events. The score is a reinterpretation of the logarithmic score or ignorance score, now formulated as the relative entropy or Kullback–Leibler divergence ...
Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context, extrapolating regular patterns in series. However unpredictable e ...
Ieee Service Center, 445 Hoes Lane, Po Box 1331, Piscataway, Nj 08855-1331 Usa2009
In alpine valleys with strong urban development, river training works for flood safety become more and more difficult to implement because of economic and environmental constraints. Thus flood management has a great importance especially in river basins eq ...
Mathematical forecasting approaches can lead to reliable demand forecast in some environments by extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, unpredictable events that do not appear in historical data can reduce the usefulness of mathematical fo ...
Probabilistic predictions are becoming increasingly popular in hydrology. Equally important are methods to test such predictions, given the topical debate on uncertainty analysis in hydrology. Also in the special case of hydrological forecasting, there is ...
We develop an accurate model for the arrival traffic dynamics in terminal airspace that takes into account the weather forecast and runway configuration changes. The planning of runway configuration switching subject to weather constraints is formulated as ...
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics2011
Determining safe aircraft trajectories that avoid hazardous weather regions and other aircraft while efficiently using the available airspace is an important problem. Although tactical weather forecast maps have been available, their use in automated aircr ...
Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context through extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, un ...
The MINERVE project of flood forecast and management upstream from Lake Geneva is nowadays operational. It aims to protect against inundations in the Rhone Valley, through the Valais and Vaud Cantons. Two main objectives are expected. The first is the hydr ...
This communication reports the status of the activity corresponding to the ESTEC contract ”RF Breakdown in Multicarrier Systems” (19918/06/NL/GLC/RF). The main objective of this activity is to propose alternatives to the 20-gap-crossing rule for multipacto ...
