Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk Due to Local Development

Adam Robert Swietek
2023
Article

Financial criteria in architectural design evaluation are limited to cost performance. Here, I introduce a method – Automated Design Appraisal (ADA) – to predict the market price of a generated building design concept within a local urban context. Integrating ADA with 3D-building performance simulations enables financial impact assessment that exceeds the spatial resolution of previous work. Within an integrated impact assessment, ADA measures the direct and localized effect of urban development. To demonstrate its practical utility, I study local devaluation risk due to nearby development associated with changes to visual landscape quality. The results shed light on the relationship between amenities and property value, identifying clusters of properties physically exposed or financially sensitive to local land-use change. Beyond its application as a financial sensitivity tool, ADA serves as a blueprint for architectural design optimization procedures, in which economic performance is evaluated based on learned preferences derived from financial market data.

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Modélisation financière

La modélisation financière consiste à représenter une situation financière grâce à un modèle mathématique, en fonction de différents paramètres. La modélisation financière facilite ainsi la prise de décision, en permettant de simuler divers scénarios et d’aboutir à des recommandations. La modélisation s’applique principalement à deux grands domaines de la finance, la finance d’entreprise et la finance de marché.

Financial economics

Financial economics is the branch of economics characterized by a "concentration on monetary activities", in which "money of one type or another is likely to appear on both sides of a trade". Its concern is thus the interrelation of financial variables, such as share prices, interest rates and exchange rates, as opposed to those concerning the real economy. It has two main areas of focus: asset pricing and corporate finance; the first being the perspective of providers of capital, i.e.

Évaluation des risques

Dans le domaine de la gestion des risques, l'évaluation des risques est l'ensemble des méthodes consistant à calculer la criticité (pertinence et gravité) des dangers. Elle vise outre à les quantifier, à qualifier les dangers (qui doivent donc préalablement avoir été identifiés). Elle se base sur . Dans ce domaine, on se restreint à l'étude du risque aryétique, c'est-à-dire en ne considérant que les événements à conséquences négatives.

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