Simulating Mold Risks under Future Climate Conditions

This research tests the potential susceptibility of a prevalent, residential, wall assembly to the risk of sustained mold-growth in predicted future climate conditions. Here, the authors demonstrate a methodology that combines hygrothermal and mold-growth simulation tools with future weather files. This paper also explores the sensitivity of the results to predicted weather conditions, using nine weather context simulations for one city and separating the effect of rainfall from other climatic factors. The results illustrate how future climates may provide adequate conditions for sustained mold-growth in a wall assembly where no such problem exists today. This study demonstrates the potentially widespread need for this type of analysis. Further, the method lays the groundwork for exploring building designs and material selection from the perspective of climate resilience.