Prevalence Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases

Description

This lecture by the instructor focuses on the design and analysis of prevalence surveys for neglected tropical diseases, covering topics such as geostatistics, logistic regression, extra-binomial variation, and geostatistical prediction. The lecture also delves into the application of model-based geostatistics in global public health, with examples from onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. Various methodological extensions are discussed, including adaptive design, multiple diagnostics, and spatio-temporal models. Through simulated examples and real-world case studies, the lecture emphasizes the importance of principled statistical methods in addressing the challenges of disease prevalence estimation and control.

Official source

https://mediaspace.epfl.ch/media/0_9lox9d0u

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Geostatistics

Geostatistics is a branch of statistics focusing on spatial or spatiotemporal datasets. Developed originally to predict probability distributions of ore grades for mining operations, it is currently applied in diverse disciplines including petroleum geology, hydrogeology, hydrology, meteorology, oceanography, geochemistry, geometallurgy, geography, forestry, environmental control, landscape ecology, soil science, and agriculture (esp. in precision farming).

Logistic regression

In statistics, the logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that models the probability of an event taking place by having the log-odds for the event be a linear combination of one or more independent variables. In regression analysis, logistic regression (or logit regression) is estimating the parameters of a logistic model (the coefficients in the linear combination).

Multinomial logistic regression

In statistics, multinomial logistic regression is a classification method that generalizes logistic regression to multiclass problems, i.e. with more than two possible discrete outcomes. That is, it is a model that is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible outcomes of a categorically distributed dependent variable, given a set of independent variables (which may be real-valued, binary-valued, categorical-valued, etc.).

Variogram

In spatial statistics the theoretical variogram, denoted , is a function describing the degree of spatial dependence of a spatial random field or stochastic process . The semivariogram is half the variogram. In the case of a concrete example from the field of gold mining, a variogram will give a measure of how much two samples taken from the mining area will vary in gold percentage depending on the distance between those samples. Samples taken far apart will vary more than samples taken close to each other.

Linear regression

In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach for modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables (also known as dependent and independent variables). The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression; for more than one, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable.