Weather Events and Climate Change: Understanding the Impact

Description

This lecture delves into the relationship between weather events and climate change, exploring the definition and impact of non-stationary phenomena. The instructor discusses the merging of observations to describe this relationship, emphasizing the human influence on mean temperature and extreme events. Through historical context and scientific models, the lecture addresses the challenges of attributing specific weather events to climate change drivers. It also covers the complexities of liability for climate change and the use of Generalized Extreme Value distributions. The lecture concludes by proposing statistical approaches to assess the influence of human-induced climate change on the frequency and intensity of weather events.

Official source

https://mediaspace.epfl.ch/media/0_mmg7ypet

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Definition

A definition is a statement of the meaning of a term (a word, phrase, or other set of symbols). Definitions can be classified into two large categories: intensional definitions (which try to give the sense of a term), and extensional definitions (which try to list the objects that a term describes). Another important category of definitions is the class of ostensive definitions, which convey the meaning of a term by pointing out examples. A term may have many different senses and multiple meanings, and thus require multiple definitions.

Lexical definition

The lexical definition of a term, also known as the dictionary definition, is the definition closely matching the meaning of the term in common usage. As its other name implies, this is the sort of definition one is likely to find in the dictionary. A lexical definition is usually the type expected from a request for definition, and it is generally expected that such a definition will be stated as simply as possible in order to convey information to the widest audience.

Circular definition

A circular definition is a type of definition that uses the term(s) being defined as part of the description or assumes that the term(s) being described are already known. There are several kinds of circular definition, and several ways of characterising the term: pragmatic, lexicographic and linguistic. Circular definitions are related to Circular reasoning in that they both involve a self-referential approach. Circular definitions may be unhelpful if the audience must either already know the meaning of the key term, or if the term to be defined is used in the definition itself.

Generalized extreme value distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions developed within extreme value theory to combine the Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull families also known as type I, II and III extreme value distributions. By the extreme value theorem the GEV distribution is the only possible limit distribution of properly normalized maxima of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables.

Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a given place.