Forecasting Methods: Expert Approaches and Professional Predictions

This lecture covers various forecasting methods, including using conventions, imitating others, and drawing inspiration from the past. It also delves into professional predictions for the Swiss economy, such as real GDP, private consumption, public investment, and more. The lecture explores the quality of professional anticipations, the evolution of rental property prices, and the challenges of planning investments. It discusses the biases in predictions influenced by the desire for normalcy and the difficulties in accurately forecasting economic trends. Additionally, it examines the co-evolution with other variables, population forecasts, and predictions for construction investments.