Lattice model (finance)

In finance, a lattice model is a technique applied to the valuation of derivatives, where a discrete time model is required. For equity options, a typical example would be pricing an American option, where a decision as to option exercise is required at "all" times (any time) before and including maturity. A continuous model, on the other hand, such as Black–Scholes, would only allow for the valuation of European options, where exercise is on the option's maturity date. For interest rate derivatives lattices are additionally useful in that they address many of the issues encountered with continuous models, such as pull to par. The method is also used for valuing certain exotic options, where because of path dependence in the payoff, Monte Carlo methods for option pricing fail to account for optimal decisions to terminate the derivative by early exercise, though methods now exist for solving this problem. In general the approach is to divide time between now and the option's expiration into N discrete periods. At the specific time n, the model has a finite number of outcomes at time n + 1 such that every possible change in the state of the world between n and n + 1 is captured in a branch. This process is iterated until every possible path between n = 0 and n = N is mapped. Probabilities are then estimated for every n to n + 1 path. The outcomes and probabilities flow backwards through the tree until a fair value of the option today is calculated. For equity and commodities the application is as follows. The first step is to trace the evolution of the option's key underlying variable(s), starting with today's spot price, such that this process is consistent with its volatility; log-normal Brownian motion with constant volatility is usually assumed. The next step is to value the option recursively: stepping backwards from the final time-step, where we have exercise value at each node; and applying risk neutral valuation at each earlier node, where option value is the probability-weighted present value of the up- and down-nodes in the later time-step.