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Concept
Quantity theory of money
Summary
In monetary economics, the quantity theory of money (often abbreviated QTM) is one of the directions of Western economic thought that emerged in the 16th-17th centuries. The QTM states that the general price level of goods and services is directly proportional to the amount of money in circulation, or money supply. For example, if the amount of money in an economy doubles, QTM predicts that price levels will also double. The theory was originally formulated by Renaissance mathematician Nicolaus Copernicus in 1517, and was influentially restated by philosophers John Locke, David Hume and Jean Bodin. The theory experienced a large surge in popularity with economists Anna Schwartz and Milton Friedman's book A Monetary History of the United States, published in 1963.
The theory was challenged by Keynesian economists, but updated and reinvigorated by the monetarist school of economics, led by economist Milton Friedman. Critics of the theory argue that money velocity is not stable and, in the short-run, prices are sticky, so the direct relationship between money supply and price level does not hold.
Alternative theories include the real bills doctrine and the more recent fiscal theory of the price level.
The quantity theory descends from Nicolaus Copernicus, followers of the School of Salamanca like Martín de Azpilicueta, Jean Bodin, Henry Thornton, and various others who noted the increase in prices following the import of gold and silver, used in the coinage of money, from the New World. The "equation of exchange" relating the supply of money to the value of money transactions was stated by John Stuart Mill who expanded on the ideas of David Hume. The quantity theory was developed by Simon Newcomb, Alfred de Foville, Irving Fisher, and Ludwig von Mises, although the latter believed demand for money was also a significant factor, in the late 19th and early 20th century.
Henry Thornton introduced the idea of a central bank after the financial panic of 1793.
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