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Concept
Arctic oscillation
Summary
The Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic pole north of 20 degrees latitude. It is an important mode of climate variability for the Northern Hemisphere. The southern hemisphere analogue is called the Antarctic oscillation or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal sea-level pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45° N.
The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a close relative of the Arctic oscillation. There is debate over whether one or the other is more fundamentally representative of the atmosphere's dynamics. The NAO may be identified in a more physically meaningful way, which may carry more impact on measurable effects of changes in the atmosphere.
The Arctic oscillation appears as a ringlike (or "annular") pattern of sea-level pressure anomalies centered at the poles. The presence of continents and large landmasses disrupts the ringlike structure at the Arctic pole, while anomalies surrounding the Antarctic pole are nearly circular.
The Arctic oscillation is believed by climatologists to be causally related to (and thus partially predictive of) global weather patterns. NASA climatologist James E. Hansen explained the mechanism by which the Arctic oscillation affects weather at points so distant from the Arctic, as follows (note, however, that Hansen's explanation is erroneous: pressure in the Arctic is low in the positive AO phase, which configuration also enhances the jet stream):
The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the AO index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is high in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region.
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