Autoregressive integrated moving average

Summary

In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.e., the trend). When the seasonality shows in a time series, the seasonal-differencing could be applied to eliminate the seasonal component. Since the ARMA model, according to the Wold's decomposition theorem, is theoretically sufficient to describe a regular (a.k.a. purely nondeterministic) wide-sense stationary time

Official source

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average

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Filtering Random Graph Processes Over Random Time-Varying Graphs

Andreas Loukas

Graph filters play a key role in processing the graph spectra of signals supported on the vertices of a graph. However, despite their widespread use, graph filters have been analyzed only in the deterministic setting, ignoring the impact of stochasticity in both the graph topology and the signal itself. To bridge this gap, we examine the statistical behavior of the two key filter types, finite impulse response and autoregressive moving average graph filters, when operating on random time-varying graph signals (or random graph processes) over random time-varying graphs. Our analysis shows that 1) in expectation, the filters behave as the same deterministic filters operating on a deterministic graph, being the expected graph, having as input signal a deterministic signal, being the expected signal, and 2) there are meaningful upper bounds for the variance of the filter output. We conclude this paper by proposing two novel ways of exploiting randomness to improve (joint graph-time) noise cancellation, as well as to reduce the computational complexity of graph filtering. As demonstrated by numerical results, these methods outperform the disjoint average and denoise algorithm and yield a (up to) four times complexity reduction, with a very little difference from the optimal solution.

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers2017

We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland, the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results for both NAO and AAO confirm the importance of atmospheric dynamics for ozone variability and changes from local/regional to global scales.

Copernicus Publications2013

AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE GRAPH FILTERS A STABLE DISTRIBUTED IMPLEMENTATION

Andreas Loukas

We present a novel implementation strategy for distributed autoregressive moving average (ARMA) graph filters. Differently from the state of the art implementation, the proposed approach has the following benefits: (i) the designed filter coefficients come with stability guarantees, (ii) the linear convergence time can now be controlled by the filter coefficients, and (iii) the stable filter coefficients that approximate a desired frequency response are optimal in a least squares sense. Numerical results show that the proposed implementation outperforms the state of the art distributed infinite impulse response (IIR) graph filters. Further, even at fixed distributed costs, compared with the popular finite impulse response (FIR) filters, at high orders our method achieves tighter low-pass responses, suggesting that it should be preferable in accuracy-demanding applications.

Ieee2017

Copernicus Publications2013