Seismic hazard

Summary

A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects, land use planning and determining insurance rates. The seismic hazard studies also may generate two standard measures of anticipated ground motion, both confusingly abbreviated MCE; the simpler probabilistic Maximum Considered Earthquake (or Event ), used in standard building codes, and the more detailed and deterministic Maximum Credible Earthquake incorporated in the design of larger buildings and civil infrastructure like dams or bridges. It is important to clarify which MCE is being discussed. Calculations for determining seismic hazard were first formulated by C. Allin Cornell in 1968 and, depending on their level of

Official source

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismic_hazard

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Seismic vulnerability assessment at large scale city of Basel

Romain Savoy

The Basel region is one of the most seismically active regions in Switzerland. Already devastated by Nature in 1356, the city of Basel is now actively involved in assessing the seismic risk on its buildings in order to protect its patrimony and its population as effectively as possible. Through innovative assessment methods, researchers and scientists throughout Switzerland are working to effectively and accurately assess seismic risk through the three components that define it: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is this latter element that is addressed in this report. While the assessments carried out so far deal with the buildings one by one, an essential aspect of Basel's built environment is hidden in the row configurations of many buildings. Indeed, due to the desire to optimize space, many buildings are adjacent to each other, modifying thus their seismic behaviour. This document is therefore a first study of the vulnerability of building rows in order to reveal whether the effects of this particular configuration are beneficial or not. Thanks to epoch plans collected from the archives of the Canton of Basel-Stadt and dynamic simulations based on the Applied Element Method, the consequences on the vulnerability of two types of rows of masonry buildings are estimated. As a conclusion, the impact of introducing new fragility curves on the assessment of damage in the Iselin district makes it possible to highlight the effects of taking into account the row configuration of the buildings it contains.

2020

Steel concentrically braced frames (CBFs) as lateral load resisting system are common in steel construction, for their high strength and architectural versatility. However, the brace connection details have to be well designed to ensure a ductility of the frame under seismic excitation. This Master Thesis studies the behavior of a steel CBF, located in Sendai (Japan). It experienced significant damage at brace connections after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake in Japan. They are mainly due to the eccentricity created by the single-lap gusset plates along the long duration of the imposed ground motion hazard. The seismic response of the CBF is assessed by means of nonlinear analysis with the performance-based approach according to ASCE/SEI 41-13 (2014). As the braces do not meet any performance criteria, seismic retrofit is required. Three retrofit solutions are investigated and compared. Two of them are considered as conventional solutions. They consist to replace the braces and gusset plates, once with new Chevron braces and once with new X braces. The new braces are designed with the Capacity Design rules. The third solution modifies the CBF into a Rocking Braced Frame (RBF). This innovative high-performance system allows the column bases to uplift in order to dissipate the seismic energy and localize the damages in easily replaceable fuses to protect the primary members. The retrofit works are mainly located at the column bases. Dynamic analyses of the initial frame and its retrofits are computed for a seismic input recorded during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake. The peak storey drift ratio (SDR), residual SDR and story shear forces are compared. The new Chevron CBF has the worst performance of the three retrofits. New X-bracing CBF and the RBF show a similar performance, the RBF being slightly better.

2020

A Probabilistic Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for the Alborz Region, Iran

Alireza Khodaverdian

The seismic activity rate is one of the most significant factors in seismic hazard modeling. Although it is usually estimated from observed seismicity, a complete picture of the possible earthquakes is not always available since catalogs of the observed earthquakes are short and incomplete. Long-term physics-based numerical simulations, providing a comprehensive range of earthquakes, are a decent way to overcome such deficiency. With this contribution, we built a seismic hazard model for the Alborz region, Iran, using a long-term physics-based synthetic earthquake catalog, enriched with the additional consideration of background seismicity derived from a deformation model. 200,000 yr synthetic catalogs for the Alborz region, Iran, are used and validated by considering the recurrence time of large-magnitude events estimated from the paleoseismological investigation on individual faults. The magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) from the synthetic earthquake catalog is then compared with the MFD based on observation, which overall indicates good compatibility, although there are discrepancies for some faults. The estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the Alborz region varies in the ranges of 0.16-0.52g and 0.27-1.0g for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr, respectively. The absolute natural logarithm differences averaged across the region are similar to 0.21, corresponding to an average of 23% difference in PGA values in comparison with the most up-to-date observed-based hazard model. Hazard curves for several populated cities are also presented and compared with the other independent estimates. The proposed procedure could be an alternative approach to evaluate seismic hazard for a seismically active region, in particular for those without a complete catalog of observed earthquakes.

SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER2022