Commodity market

Summary

A commodity market is a market that trades in the primary economic sector rather than manufactured products, such as cocoa, fruit and sugar. Hard commodities are mined, such as gold and oil. Futures contracts are the oldest way of investing in commodities. Commodity markets can include physical trading and derivatives trading using spot prices, forwards, futures, and options on futures. Farmers have used a simple form of derivative trading in the commodity market for centuries for price risk management. A financial derivative is a financial instrument whose value is derived from a commodity termed an underlier. Derivatives are either exchange-traded or over-the-counter (OTC). An increasing number of derivatives are traded via clearing houses some with central counterparty clearing, which provide clearing and settlement services on a futures exchange, as well as off-exchange in the OTC market. Derivatives such as futures contracts, Swaps (1970s–), and Exchange-traded Commodities (E

Official source

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_market

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In the first chapter,which is a joint work with Mathieu Cambou and Philippe H.A. Charmoy, we study the distribution of the hedging errors of a European call option for the delta and variance-minimizing strategies. Considering the setting proposed by Heston (1993), we assess the error distribution by computing its moments under the real-world probability measure. It turns out that one is better off implementing either a delta hedging or a variance-minimizing strategy, depending on the strike and maturity of the option under consideration. In the second paper, which is a joint work with Damir Filipovic and Loriano Mancini, we develop a practicable continuous-time dynamic arbitrage-free model for the pricing of European contingent claims. Using the framework introduced by Carmona and Nadtochiy (2011, 2012), the stock price is modeled as a semi-martingale process and, at each time t , the marginal distribution of the European option prices is coded by an auxiliary process that starts at t and follows an exponential additive process. The jump intensity that characterizes these auxiliary processes is then set in motion by means of stochastic dynamics of Itô's type. The model is a modification of the one proposed by Carmona and Nadtochiy, as only finitely many jump sizes are assumed. This crucial assumption implies that the jump intensities are taken values in only a finitedimensional space. In this setup, explicit necessary and sufficient consistency conditions that guarantee the absence of arbitrage are provided. A practicable dynamic model verifying them is proposed and estimated, using options on the S&P 500. Finally, the hedging of variance swap contracts is considered. It is shown that under certain conditions, a variance-minimizing hedging portfolio gives lower hedging errors on average, compared to a model-free hedging strategy. In the third and last chapter, which is a joint work with Rémy Praz, we concentrate on the commodity markets and try to understand the impact of financiers on the hedging decisions. We look at the changes in the spot price, variance, production and hedging choices of both producers and financiers, when the mass of financiers in the economy increases. We develop an equilibrium model of commodity spot and futures markets in which commodity production, consumption, and speculation are endogenously determined. Financiers facilitate hedging by the commodity suppliers. The entry of new financiers thus increases the supply of the commodity and decreases the expected spot prices, to the benefits of the end-users. However, this entry may be detrimental to the producers, as they do not internalize the price reduction due to greater aggregate supply. In the presence of asymmetric information, speculation on the futures market serves as a learning device. The futures price and open interest reveal different pieces of private information regarding the supply and demand side of the spot market, respectively. When the accuracy of private information is low, the entry of new financiers makes both production and spot prices more volatile. The entry of new financiers typically increases the correlation between financial and commodity markets.

EPFL2014

This thesis develops equilibrium models, and studies the effects of market frictions on risk-sharing, derivatives pricing, and trading patterns. In the chapter titled "Imbalance-Based Option Pricing", I develop an equilibrium model of fragmented options markets in which option prices and bid-ask spreads are determined by the nonlinear risk imbalance between dealers and customers. In my model, dealers optimally exploit their market power and charge higher spreads for deep out-of-the-money (OTM) options, leading to an endogenous skew in both prices and spreads. In stark contrast to theories of price pressure in option markets, I show how wealth effects can make customers' net demand for options be negatively correlated with option prices. Under natural conditions, the skewness risk premium is positively correlated with the variance risk premium, consistent with the data. In the chapter titled "The Demand for Commodity Options", we develop a simple equilibrium model in which commercial hedgers, i.e., producers and consumers, use commodity options and futures to hedge price and quantity risk. We derive an explicit relationship between expected futures returns and the hedgers' demand for out-of-the-money options, and show that the demand for both calls and puts are positively related to expected returns, and the relationship is asymmetric, tilted towards puts. We test and confirm the model predictions empirically using the commitment of traders report from CFTC. In the chapter titled "Electronic Trading in OTC Markets vs. Centralized Exchange", we model a two-tiered market structure in which an investor can trade an asset on a trading platform with a set of dealers who in turn have access to an interdealer market. The investor's order is informative about the asset's payoff and dealers who were contacted by the investor use this information in the interdealer market. Increasing the number of contacted dealers lowers markups through competition but increases the dealers' costs of providing the asset through information leakage. We then compare a centralized market in which investors can trade among themselves in a central limit order book to a market in which investors have to use the electronic platform to trade the asset. With imperfect competition among dealers, investor welfare is higher in the centralized market if private values are strongly dispersed or if the mass of investors is large.

EPFL2018

Systemic Risk in Energy Derivative Markets: A Graph-Theory Analysis

Franck Claude Raynaud

This article uses graph theory to provide novel evidence regarding market integration, a favorable condition for systemic risk to appear in. Relying on daily futures returns covering a 12-year period, we examine cross- and inter-market linkages, both within the commodity complex and between commodities and other financial assets. In such a high dimensional analysis, graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. We show that energy markets-as a whole-stand at the heart of this system. We also establish that crude oil is itself at the center of the energy complex. Further, we provide evidence that commodity markets have become more integrated over time.

2012

EPFL2014

EPFL2018