Concept

Prediction interval

Related publications (134)

Anthony C Davison and Igor Rodionov's contribution to the Discussion of 'Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting' by Waudby-Smith and Ramdas

Anthony Christopher Davison, Igor Rodionov

We derive confidence intervals (CIs) and confidence sequences (CSs) for the classical problem of estimating a bounded mean. Our approach generalizes and improves on the celebrated Chernoff method, yielding the best closed-form "empirical-Bernstein" CSs and ...

Oxford2024

Fair real-time control of energy storage systems in active distribution networks in the presence of uncertainties

Plouton Grammatikos

The thesis explores the issue of fairness in the real-time (RT) control of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) hosted in active distribution networks (ADNs) in the presence of uncertainties by proposing and experimentally validating appropriate control ...

EPFL2024

Maximum likelihood bolometry for ASDEX upgrade experiments

Riccardo Rossi

Bolometry is an essential diagnostic for calculating the power balances and for the understanding of different physical aspects of tokamak experiments. The reconstruction method based on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle, developed initially for JET, h ...

Bristol2023

Estimation of Self-Exciting Point Processes from Time-Censored Data

Thomas Alois Weber, Philipp Schneider

Self-exciting point processes, widely used to model arrival phenomena in nature and society, are often difficult to identify. The estimation becomes even more challenging when arrivals are recorded only as bin counts on a finite partition of the observatio ...

2023

Peak Value-at-Risk Estimation for Stochastic Differential Equations using Occupation Measures

Matteo Raphael Tacchi

This paper proposes an algorithm to upper-bound maximal quantile statistics of a state function over the course of a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) system execution. This chance-peak problem is posed as a nonconvex program aiming to maximize the Va ...

New York2023

Attractive and repulsive serial dependence: The role of task relevance, the passage of time, and the number of stimuli

David Pascucci, Gizay Ceylan

Visual decisions are attracted toward features of previous stimuli. This phenomenon, termed serial dependence, has been related to a mechanism that integrates present visual input with stimuli seen up to 10 to 15 s in the past. It is believed that this mec ...

2023

Bimanual dynamic grabbing and tossing of objects onto a moving target

Aude Billard, Michael Bosongo Bombile

Bimanual grabbing and tossing of packages onto trays or conveyor belts remains a human activity in the industry. For robots, such a dynamic task requires coordination between two arms and fast adaptation abilities when the tossing target is moving and subj ...

2023

Expectation consistency for calibration of neural networks

Florent Gérard Krzakala, Lenka Zdeborová, Lucas Andry Clarte, Bruno Loureiro

Despite their incredible performance, it is well reported that deep neural networks tend to be overoptimistic about their prediction confidence. Finding effective and efficient calibration methods for neural networks is therefore an important endeavour tow ...

2023

A note on universal inference

Anthony Christopher Davison, Timmy Rong Tian Tse

Universal inference enables the construction of confidence intervals and tests without regularity conditions by splitting the data into two parts and appealing to Markov's inequality. Previous investigations have shown that the cost of this generality is a ...

WILEY2022

Is There a Cap on Longevity? A Statistical Review

Anthony Christopher Davison

There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if there is any, to the human life span. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social security sys ...

ANNUAL REVIEWS2022

Graph Chatbot

Chat with Graph Search

Ask any question about EPFL courses, lectures, exercises, research, news, etc. or try the example questions below.

DISCLAIMER: The Graph Chatbot is not programmed to provide explicit or categorical answers to your questions. Rather, it transforms your questions into API requests that are distributed across the various IT services officially administered by EPFL. Its purpose is solely to collect and recommend relevant references to content that you can explore to help you answer your questions.