Lorenz system | EPFL Graph Search

The Lorenz system is a system of ordinary differential equations first studied by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. It is notable for having chaotic solutions for certain parameter values and initial conditions. In particular, the Lorenz attractor is a set of chaotic solutions of the Lorenz system. In popular media the "butterfly effect" stems from the real-world implications of the Lorenz attractor, namely that several different initial chaotic conditions evolve in phase space in a way that never repeats, so all chaos is unpredictable. This underscores that chaotic systems can be completely deterministic and yet still be inherently unpredictable over long periods of time. Because chaos continually increases in systems, we cannot predict the future of systems well. E.g., even the small flap of a butterfly’s wings could set the world on a vastly different trajectory, such as by causing a hurricane. The shape of the Lorenz attractor itself, when plotted in phase space, may also be seen to resemble a butterfly. Chaos theory#Lorenz's pioneering contributions to chaotic modelingIn 1963, Edward Lorenz, with the help of Ellen Fetter who was responsible for the numerical simulations and figures, and Margaret Hamilton who helped in the initial, numerical computations leading up to the findings of the Lorenz model, developed a simplified mathematical model for atmospheric convection. The model is a system of three ordinary differential equations now known as the Lorenz equations: The equations relate the properties of a two-dimensional fluid layer uniformly warmed from below and cooled from above. In particular, the equations describe the rate of change of three quantities with respect to time: x is proportional to the rate of convection, y to the horizontal temperature variation, and z to the vertical temperature variation. The constants σ, ρ, and β are system parameters proportional to the Prandtl number, Rayleigh number, and certain physical dimensions of the layer itself.

Dynamical low rank approximation for uncertainty quantification of time-dependent problems

Eva Vidlicková

The quantification of uncertainties can be particularly challenging for problems requiring long-time integration as the structure of the random solution might considerably change over time. In this respect, dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA) is very appealing. It can be seen as a reduced basis method, thus solvable at a relatively low computational cost, in which the solution is expanded as a linear combination of a few deterministic functions with random coefficients. The distinctive feature of the DLRA is that both the deterministic functions and random coefficients are computed on the fly and are free to evolve in time, thus adjusting at each time to the current structure of the random solution. This is achieved by suitably projecting the dynamics onto the tangent space of a manifold consisting of all random functions with a fixed rank. In this thesis, we aim at further analysing and applying the DLR methods to time-dependent problems.Our first work considers the DLRA of random parabolic equations and proposes a class of fully discrete numerical schemes.Similarly to the continuous DLRA, our schemes are shown to satisfy a discrete variational formulation.By exploiting this property, we establish the stability of our schemes: we show that our explicit and semi-implicit versions are conditionally stable under a ``parabolic'' type CFL condition which does not depend on the smallest singular value of the DLR solution; whereas our implicit scheme is unconditionally stable. Moreover, we show that, in certain cases, the semi-implicit scheme can be unconditionally stable if the randomness in the system is sufficiently small. The analysis is supported by numerical results showing the sharpness of the obtained stability conditions. The discrete variational formulation is further applied in our second work, which derives a-priori and a-posteriori error estimates for the discrete DLRA of a random parabolic equation obtained by the three newly-proposed schemes. Under the assumption that the right-hand side of the dynamical system lies in the tangent space up to a small remainder, we show that the solution converges with standard convergence rates w.r.t. the time, spatial, and stochastic discretization parameters, with constants independent of singular values.We follow by presenting a residual-based a-posteriori error estimation for a heat equation with a random forcing term and a random diffusion coefficient which is assumed to depend affinely on a finite number of independent random variables. The a-posteriori error estimate consists of four parts: the finite element method error, the time discretization error, the stochastic collocation error, and the rank truncation error. These estimators are then used to drive an adaptive choice of FE mesh, collocation points, time steps, and time-varying rank.The last part of the thesis examines the idea of applying the DLR method in data assimilation problems, in particular the filtering problem. We propose two new filtering algorithms. They both rely on complementing the DLRA with a Gaussian component. More precisely, the DLR portion captures the non-Gaussian features in an evolving low-dimensional subspace through interacting particles, whereas each particle carries a Gaussian distribution on the whole ambient space. We study the effectiveness of these algorithms on a filtering problem for the Lorenz-96 system.

EPFL2022

Dynamical low rank approximation for uncertainty quantification of time-dependent problems

Eva Vidlicková

EPFL2022