Forecast skillIn the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecasting skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual value of what is being predicted (formally, the predictand); it may be quantified as a skill score. In meteorology, more specifically in weather forecasting, skill measures the superiority of a forecast over a simple historical baseline of past observations.
Data assimilationData assimilation is a mathematical discipline that seeks to optimally combine theory (usually in the form of a numerical model) with observations. There may be a number of different goals sought – for example, to determine the optimal state estimate of a system, to determine initial conditions for a numerical forecast model, to interpolate sparse observation data using (e.g. physical) knowledge of the system being observed, to set numerical parameters based on training a model from observed data.
Heat waveA heat wave (or heatwave)), sometimes known as extreme heat, is a period of abnormally hot weather. High humidity often accompanies heat waves. This is especially the case in oceanic climate countries. Definitions vary but are similar. We usually measure a heat wave relative to the usual climate in the area and to normal temperatures for the season. Temperatures that people from a hotter climate consider normal can be called a heat wave in a cooler area. This would be the case if the warm temperatures are outside the normal climate pattern for that area.
Primitive equationsThe primitive equations are a set of nonlinear partial differential equations that are used to approximate global atmospheric flow and are used in most atmospheric models. They consist of three main sets of balance equations: A continuity equation: Representing the conservation of mass.
Lewis Fry RichardsonLewis Fry Richardson, FRS (11 October 1881 – 30 September 1953) was an English mathematician, physicist, meteorologist, psychologist, and pacifist who pioneered modern mathematical techniques of weather forecasting, and the application of similar techniques to studying the causes of wars and how to prevent them. He is also noted for his pioneering work concerning fractals and a method for solving a system of linear equations known as modified Richardson iteration.
Geopotential heightGeopotential height or geopotential altitude is a vertical coordinate referenced to Earth's mean sea level (assumed zero potential) that represents the work done by lifting one unit mass one unit distance through a region in which the acceleration of gravity is uniformly 9.80665 m/s2. Geopotential height (altitude) differs from geometric (tapeline) height but remains a historical convention in aeronautics as the altitude used for calibration of aircraft barometric altimeters.
Potential temperatureThe potential temperature of a parcel of fluid at pressure is the temperature that the parcel would attain if adiabatically brought to a standard reference pressure , usually . The potential temperature is denoted and, for a gas well-approximated as ideal, is given by where is the current absolute temperature (in K) of the parcel, is the gas constant of air, and is the specific heat capacity at a constant pressure. for air (meteorology). The reference point for potential temperature in the ocean is usually at the ocean's surface which has a water pressure of 0 dbar.
Global Forecast SystemThe Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS). The mathematical model is run four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only the larger scales retain significant accuracy.
AccuWeatherAccuWeather Inc. is a private-sector American media company that provides commercial weather forecasting services worldwide. AccuWeather was founded in 1962 by Joel N. Myers, then a Pennsylvania State University graduate student working on a master's degree in meteorology. His first customer was a gas company in Pennsylvania. While running his company, Myers also worked as a member of Penn State's meteorology faculty. The company adopted the name "AccuWeather" in 1971.
Tropical cyclone warnings and watchesTropical cyclone warnings and watches are alerts issued by national weather forecasting bodies to coastal areas threatened by the imminent approach of a tropical cyclone of tropical storm or hurricane intensity. They are notices to the local population and civil authorities to make appropriate preparation for the cyclone, including evacuation of vulnerable areas where necessary. It is important that interests throughout the area of an alert make preparations to protect life and property, and do not disregard it on the strength of the detailed forecast track.
