Prior probabilityA prior probability distribution of an uncertain quantity, often simply called the prior, is its assumed probability distribution before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable.
Food pricesFood prices refer to the average price level for food across countries, regions and on a global scale. Food prices affect producers and consumers of food. Price levels depend on the food production process, including food marketing and food distribution. Fluctuation in food prices is determined by a number of compounding factors. Geopolitical events, global demand, exchange rates, government policy, diseases and crop yield, energy costs, availability of natural resources for agriculture, food speculation, changes in the use of soil and weather events directly affect food prices.
Statistical modelA statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of sample data (and similar data from a larger population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process. When referring specifically to probabilities, the corresponding term is probabilistic model. A statistical model is usually specified as a mathematical relationship between one or more random variables and other non-random variables.
2000s energy crisisFrom the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under US25/barrelin2008dollars.During2003,thepriceroseabove30, reached 60by11August2005,andpeakedat147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including Middle East tension, soaring demand from China, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports showing a decline in petroleum reserves, worries over peak oil, and financial speculation. Auction theoryAuction theory is an applied branch of economics which deals with how bidders act in auction markets and researches how the features of auction markets incentivise predictable outcomes. Auction theory is a tool used to inform the design of real-world auctions. Sellers use auction theory to raise higher revenues while allowing buyers to procure at a lower cost. The conference of the price between the buyer and seller is an economic equilibrium. Auction theorists design rules for auctions to address issues which can lead to market failure.
World oil market chronology from 2003From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under 25/barrel.Then,during2004,thepriceroseabove40, and then 60.Aseriesofeventsledthepricetoexceed60 by August 11, 2005, leading to a record-speed hike that reached 75bythemiddleof2006.Pricesthendroppedbackto60/barrel by the early part of 2007 before rising steeply again to 92/barrelbyOctober2007,and99.29/barrel for December futures in New York on November 21, 2007. 