Publication

Reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty for an Alpine catchment using a non-parametric methodology

Related publications (59)

Toward Reliable Human Pose Forecasting With Uncertainty

Alexandre Massoud Alahi, Saeed Saadatnejad, Taylor Ferdinand Mordan, Parham Saremi

Recently, there has been an arms race of pose forecasting methods aimed at solving the spatio-temporal task of predicting a sequence of future 3D poses of a person given a sequence of past observed ones. However, the lack of unified benchmarks and limited ...

2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Xinyi Li, Lei Gao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Ekaterina Krymova, Nicola Parolini, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Daniel Lopez, Markus Scholz, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning

On average every 2 years, the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits extreme perturbations known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The impact of these events is not limited to the stratosphere: but they can also influence the weather at the surface of ...

Gottingen2023

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Ekaterina Krymova, Markus Scholz

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases an ...

London2022

Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Neural Network Coupling for Wind Energy Forecast

Fernando Porté Agel, Jiannong Fang, Lorenzo Donadio

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real ...

2021

Building Electricity Demand Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies

Lorenzo Donadio

Accurate building electricity load forecasts play a major role in the energy transition, as they facilitate flexibility deployment, grid stability and overall reduce costs and CO2 emissions. This research leaverages forecasting and reconciliation of tempor ...

2021

Uncertainty and Surprisal Jointly Deliver the Punchline: Exploiting Incongruity-Based Features for Humor Recognition

Pearl Pu Faltings, Yubo Xie, Junze Li

Humor recognition has been widely studied as a text classification problem using data-driven approaches. However, most existing work does not examine the actual joke mechanism to understand humor. We break down any joke into two distinct components: the se ...

ASSOC COMPUTATIONAL LINGUISTICS-ACL2021

Data assimilation of in situ and satellite remote sensing data to 3D hydrodynamic lake models: a case study using Delft3D-FLOW v4.03 and OpenDA v2.4

Alfred Johny Wüest, Damien Bouffard, Theo Baracchini

The understanding of physical dynamics is crucial to provide scientifically credible information on lake ecosystem management. We show how the combination of in situ observations, remote sensing data, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic (3D) numerical simul ...

2020

Model based forecasting for demand response strategies

Lorenzo Nespoli

The incremental deployment of decentralized renewable energy sources in the distribution grid is triggering a paradigm change for the power sector. This shift from a centralized structure with big power plants to a decentralized scenario of distributed ene ...

EPFL2019

Graph Chatbot

Chat with Graph Search

Ask any question about EPFL courses, lectures, exercises, research, news, etc. or try the example questions below.

DISCLAIMER: The Graph Chatbot is not programmed to provide explicit or categorical answers to your questions. Rather, it transforms your questions into API requests that are distributed across the various IT services officially administered by EPFL. Its purpose is solely to collect and recommend relevant references to content that you can explore to help you answer your questions.