ForecastingForecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself.
Stationary processIn mathematics and statistics, a stationary process (or a strict/strictly stationary process or strong/strongly stationary process) is a stochastic process whose unconditional joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. Consequently, parameters such as mean and variance also do not change over time. If you draw a line through the middle of a stationary process then it should be flat; it may have 'seasonal' cycles around the trend line, but overall it does not trend up nor down.
Demand forecastingDemand forecasting refers to the process of predicting the quantity of goods and services that will be demanded by consumers at a future point in time. More specifically, the methods of demand forecasting entail using predictive analytics to estimate customer demand in consideration of key economic conditions. This is an important tool in optimizing business profitability through efficient supply chain management. Demand forecasting methods are divided into two major categories, qualitative and quantitative methods.
Time seriesIn mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart).
ProcessA process is a series or set of activities that interact to produce a result; it may occur once-only or be recurrent or periodic. Things called a process include: Business process, activities that produce a specific service or product for customers Business process modeling, activity of representing processes of an enterprise in order to deliver improvements Manufacturing process management, a collection of technologies and methods used to define how products are to be manufactured. Process architecture, s
Consensus forecastUsed in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, consensus forecasts are predictions of the future that are created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. Also known as combining forecasts, forecast averaging or model averaging (in econometrics and statistics) and committee machines, ensemble averaging or expert aggregation (in machine learning).
Technology forecastingTechnology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits.
Trend-stationary processIn the statistical analysis of time series, a trend-stationary process is a stochastic process from which an underlying trend (function solely of time) can be removed, leaving a stationary process. The trend does not have to be linear. Conversely, if the process requires differencing to be made stationary, then it is called difference stationary and possesses one or more unit roots. Those two concepts may sometimes be confused, but while they share many properties, they are different in many aspects.
Strategic foresightStrategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight. Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization. Scenario planning plays a prominent role in strategic foresight.
Stochastic processIn probability theory and related fields, a stochastic (stəˈkæstɪk) or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a sequence of random variables, where the index of the sequence has the interpretation of time. Stochastic processes are widely used as mathematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. Examples include the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule.
