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Activity-based modeling and simulation of epidemics

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Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Joseph Chadi Benoit Lemaitre, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Wei Cao, Myungjin Kim, Shan Yu, Xinyi Li, Lei Gao

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Ekaterina Krymova, Nicola Parolini, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Daniel Lopez, Markus Scholz, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Social isolation shortens lifespan through oxidative stress in ants

Alessandro Crespi, Laurent Keller

Social isolation negatively affects health, induces detrimental behaviors, and shortens lifespan in social species. Little is known about the mechanisms underpinning these effects because model species are typically short-lived and non-social. Using coloni ...

Berlin2023

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Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ra ...

PMLR Proceedings of Machine Learning Research2023

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Existing epidemiological models analyze the transmission of infectious diseases considering a perfect homogenous population. However, the COVID-19 emergency has shown the importance of considering activity-travel behavior when studying the spreading of the ...

2022

Meta Navigation Functions: Adaptive Associations for Coordination of Multi-Agent Systems

Matin Macktoobian

In this paper, we introduce a new class of potential fields, i.e., meta navigation functions (MNFs) to coordinate multi-agent systems. Thanks to the MNF formulation, agents can contribute to each other's coordination via partial and/or total associations, ...

IEEE2022

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Ekaterina Krymova, Markus Scholz

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases an ...

London2022

A Dynamic Multi-Region MFD Model for Ride-Sourcing Systems with Ridesplitting

Nikolaos Geroliminis, Caio Vitor Beojone

Dynamic network-level models directly addressing ride-sourcing services can be useful for the development of efficient traffic management strategies both for city and company operators. Recent developments presented models under equilibrium situations for ...

2022

FinTech Lending

Andreas Fuster

In this article, we review the growing literature on financial technology (FinTech) lending-the provision of credit facilitated by technology that improves the customer-lender interaction or used in lenders' screening and monitoring of borrowers. FinTech l ...

ANNUAL REVIEWS2022

Exploring policy change through agent-based simulation

Raphaël Klein

Policymaking is a complex process that has been studied using policy process theories almost exclusively. These theories have been built using a large number of qualitative cases. Such methods are useful for theory building but remain limited for theory ex ...

EPFL2021