Publications associées à Théorie du risque

Uncertainty-aware Flexibility Envelope Prediction in Buildings with Controller-agnostic Battery Models

Colin Neil Jones, Paul Scharnhorst, Rafael Eduardo Carrillo Rangel, Pierre-Jean Alet, Baptiste Schubnel

Buildings are a promising source of flexibility for the application of demand response. In this work, we introduce a novel battery model formulation to capture the state evolution of a single building. Being fully data-driven, the battery model identificat ...

IEEE2023

Aerosol formation and growth rates from chamber experiments using Kalman smoothing

Lubna Dada

Bayesian state estimation in the form of Kalman smoothing was applied to differential mobility analyser train (DMA-train) measurements of aerosol size distribution dynamics. Four experiments were analysed in order to estimate the aerosol size distribution, ...

Copernicus Publications2021

Distributionally Robust Mechanism Design

Daniel Kuhn, Cagil Kocyigit, Wolfram Wiesemann

We study a mechanism design problem where an indivisible good is auctioned to multiple bidders, for each of whom it has a private value that is unknown to the seller and the other bidders. The agents perceive the ensemble of all bidder values as a random v ...

2020

Multi Level Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design Optimization in Aerodynamics

Michele Pisaroni

The vast majority of problems that arise in aircraft production and operation require decisions to be made in the presence of uncertainty. An effective and accurate quantification and control of the level of uncertainty introduced in the design phase and d ...

EPFL2017

Expert Judgements in Risk Analysis: a Strategy to Overcome Uncertainities

Thierry Meyer, Amela Groso, David Nicolas Plüss

There is a need for a risk analysis technique specific for academic research laboratories. Since accurate accident data, normally required for quantitative risk analysis, are not available for this environment, expert judgements are often used to describe ...

2013

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases

Gerrit Gmel

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from ...

2011