Optimal decision

Résumé

An optimal decision is a decision that leads to at least as good a known or expected outcome as all other available decision options. It is an important concept in decision theory. In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a utility value to each of them. If there is uncertainty as to what the outcome will be but knowledge about the distribution of the uncertainty, then under the von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms the optimal decision maximizes the expected utility (a probability–weighted average of utility over all possible outcomes of a decision). Sometimes, the equivalent problem of minimizing the expected value of loss is considered, where loss is (–1) times utility. Another equivalent problem is minimizing expected regret. "Utility" is only an arbitrary term for quantifying the desirability of a particular decision outcome and not necessarily related to "usefulness." For example, it may well be the optimal decision for someone to buy a sports car r

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_decision

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vignette|comparaison de certains substituts de la fonction de perte Le terme fonction objectif ou fonction économique, est utilisé en optimisation mathématique et en recherche opérationnelle pour dési

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The purpose of this master project was to explore decision making process applied to a blackjack game and make the links with facets of impulsivity. The first part of this study goes through the mathematical of this game and presented the optimal policy, computed with reinforcement learning algorithm. We also computed with a Monte Carlo simulation, for each possible hand and for each possible decision, the 3 values

{Q}_{t}

{H}_{t}

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{h}_{t}

, value function, risk, one-step-ahead risk proposed by d'Acremont & Bossaerts, 2008. The second part of the study present the result of the behavioural study. Forty-seven undergraduate students perform 200 blackjack hands and completed a self-report questionnaire evaluating impulsivity and risk attitude. Our analysis reveals links with lack of perseverance and decision time. Furthermore percentage of optimal decision along the game reveals learning with novice player. The result of this study can be used as a basis for future research in neuroimaging on the risk, to try to answer if is possible to distinguish brain area associated with one-step ahead versus total risk

2009

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A number of applications of man-machine interaction over the telephone requires a combination of speech recognition and speaker verification. This paper describes current work carried out at IDIAP in the framework of national and European projects. A generic Interactive Voice Server (IVS) is described by means of a graphical formalism. It includes speech recognition based on speaker independent flexible vocabulary technology and speaker verification performed by a number of techniques executed in parallel, and combined for optimal decision.

IDIAP / CNRS1996

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1996

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{Q}_{t}

{H}_{t}

and

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2009