Enjeux du réchauffement climatique

Cet article examine les enjeux du réchauffement climatique. En 1824, le physicien français Joseph Fourier découvre le phénomène de l'effet de serre et son effet sur le bilan thermique de la Terre. En 1896, Svante Arrhenius publie un article décrivant le phénomène, et proposant une prédiction de l'élévation de la température atmosphérique en cas de doublement de la concentration en . Dans les années 1980, cette question refait surface à l'échelle mondiale, avec la création du GIEC en 1988. Celui-ci arrive à la conclusion que, très probablement, le climat de la Terre se réchauffe du fait de l'activité anthropique. Des enjeux nouveaux émergent pour des secteurs localement très vulnérables aux changements climatiques tels que l'agriculture ou la forêt, ou encore les zones habitées situées sous le niveau de la mer (Polders) ou les îles basses (AOSIS : alliance des petits États insulaires, menacés par une augmentation du niveau de la mer). Les zones chaudes ou subdésertiques sont concerné

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GRUN: an observation-based global gridded runoff dataset from 1902 to 2014

Gionata Ghiggi, Vincent Humphrey

Freshwater resources are of high societal relevance, and understanding their past variability is vital to water management in the context of ongoing climate change. This study introduces a global gridded monthly reconstruction of runoff covering the period from 1902 to 2014. In situ streamflow observations are used to train a machine learning algorithm that predicts monthly runoff rates based on antecedent precipitation and temperature from an atmospheric reanalysis. The accuracy of this reconstruction is assessed with cross-validation and compared with an independent set of discharge observations for large river basins. The presented dataset agrees on average better with the streamflow observations than an ensemble of 13 state-of-the art global hydrological model runoff simulations. We estimate a global long-term mean runoff of 38 452 km(3)yr(-1) in agreement with previous assessments. The temporal coverage of the reconstruction offers an unprecedented view on large-scale features of runoff variability in regions with limited data coverage, making it an ideal candidate for large-scale hydro-climatic process studies, water resource assessments, and evaluating and refining existing hydrological models. The paper closes with example applications fostering the understanding of global freshwater dynamics, interannual variability, drought propagation and the response of runoff to atmospheric teleconnections. The GRUN dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.9228176 (Ghiggi et al., 2019).

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Reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions is not the only solution

Justine Brun

With the increasing strength and frequency of climate change events, the urgency to mitigate climate change impact is ever so important. Canada reported his Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and submitted its ambition to reduce his Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 40-45% by 2030 compared to 2005 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Interest for energy system modelling has been increasing for planning future energy systems, as a result of growing concern for sustainable development and transition towards renewable energies. Nevertheless, planning a decarbonization of energy system can potentially lead to environmental burden shifting, and can increase impacts on other environmental impacts such as ecosystem quality or human health. Thus, this project aims towards integrating Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and more specifically Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) within Energy Systems Modelling, in order to minimize not only climate change impacts, but human health and ecosystem quality. In addition, a dual spatial resolution was integrated in the model in order to increase data precision and computational efficiency. The results show that a low-carbon energy system, based on the optimization of GHG emissions allows to greatly reduce all the environmental impacts under analysis, compared to an all economic- based energy system, but a multi-objective optimization allows to simultaneously reduce impacts on ecosystem quality and human health, while reducing GHG emissions and keeping good economical and technical performances. The results also show that it is theoretically possible for Canada to keep on track with their emission reduction ambition by 2030, by deploying more renewable energies. This project does not allow assessing Canada’s potential to reach net-zero emissions, as environmental impacts from carbon capture technologies are still to be characterized and integrated in the model.

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Key rules of life and the fading cryosphere: impacts in alpine lakes and streams

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Alpine regions are changing rapidly due to loss of snow and ice in response to ongoing climate change. While studies have documented ecological responses in alpine lakes and streams to these changes, our ability to predict such outcomes is limited. We propose that the application of fundamental rules of life can help develop necessary predictive frameworks. We focus on four key rules of life and their interactions: the temperature dependence of biotic processes from enzymes to evolution; the wavelength‐dependence of the effects of solar radiation on biological and ecological processes; the ramifications of the non‐arbitrary elemental stoichiometry of life; and maximization of limiting resource use efficiency across scales. As the cryosphere melts and thaws, alpine lakes and streams will experience major changes in temperature regimes, absolute and relative inputs of solar radiation in ultraviolet and photosynthetically active radiation, and relative supplies of resources (e.g., carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus), leading to nonlinear and interactive effects on particular biota, as well as on community and ecosystem properties. We propose that applying these key rules of life to cryosphere‐influenced ecosystems will reduce uncertainties about the impacts of global change and help develop an integrated global view of rapidly changing alpine environments. However, doing so will require intensive interdisciplinary collaboration and international cooperation. More broadly, the alpine cryosphere is an example of a system where improving our understanding of mechanistic underpinnings of living systems might transform our ability to predict and mitigate the impacts of ongoing global change across the daunting scope of diversity in Earth’s biota and environments.

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thumb|Consommation globale d'énergie entre 2000 et 2020. L'atténuation du changement climatique ou « atténuation du réchauffement climatique » (en anglais, climate change mitigation) regroupe les acti

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