Concept

Forecast error

Publications associées (32)

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Ekaterina Krymova, Nicola Parolini, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Daniel Lopez, Markus Scholz, Tao Sun

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

Modeling local thermal responses of individuals: Validation of advanced human thermo-physiology models

Dolaana Khovalyg, Mohamad Rida

Human thermo-physiology models (HTPM) are useful tools to assess dynamic and non-uniform human thermal states. However, they are developed based on the physiological data of an average person. In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of two sophisti ...

2023

A Dynamic Multi-Region MFD Model for Ride-Sourcing Systems with Ridesplitting

Nikolaos Geroliminis, Caio Vitor Beojone

Dynamic network-level models directly addressing ride-sourcing services can be useful for the development of efficient traffic management strategies both for city and company operators. Recent developments presented models under equilibrium situations for ...

2022

Characterizing the Reserve Provision Capability Area of Active Distribution Networks: A Linear Robust Optimization Method

Fabrizio Sossan, Mokhtar Bozorg, Mohsen Kalantar Neyestanaki

Distributed energy resources (DERs) installed in active distribution networks (ADNs) can be exploited to provide both active and reactive power reserves to the upper-layer grid (i.e., sub-transmission and transmission systems) at their connection point. Th ...

2021

Numerical Weather Prediction and Artificial Neural Network Coupling for Wind Energy Forecast

Fernando Porté Agel, Jiannong Fang, Lorenzo Donadio

In the past two decades, wind energy has been under fast development worldwide. The dramatic increase of wind power penetration in electricity production has posed a big challenge to grid integration due to the high uncertainty of wind power. Accurate real ...

2021

Vehicle sharing systems: Does demand forecasting yield a better service?

Michel Bierlaire, Nikola Obrenovic, Selin Ataç

Although the idea of vehicle sharing systems (VSSs) emerges back in 1940s, sustaining such a system became simpler with the improvements in technology in the past decade. In addition to that, people have become more concerned about environmental effects an ...

2020

Bike Sharing Systems: Does demand forecasting yield a better service?

Michel Bierlaire, Nikola Obrenovic, Selin Ataç

Although the idea of vehicle sharing systems (VSSs) emerged back in 1940s, sustaining such a system became simpler with the improvements in technology in the past decade. In addition to that, people have become more concerned about environmental effects an ...

2020

Optimal Stochastic Sensor Error Modeling based on Actual Impact on Quality of GNSS-INS Integrated Navigation

Jan Skaloud, Stéphane Guerrier, Mehran Khaghani

Proper modeling of stochastic errors in inertial sensors plays a crucial role in the achievable quality of GNSS-INS integration especially with low-cost inertial sensors. Generalized Method of Wavelet Moments (GMWM) can model the underlying process for suc ...

2019

Demand forecasting for a novel transportation mode

Denis Aloyse Joseph Steffen

The vehicle sharing systems (VSSs) are becoming more and more popular due to both economic and environmental effects. However, these systems mainly focus on two specific types of vehicles: bicycles and cars. Recently, some other types of vehicles (e.g. lig ...

2019

Robust aircraft trajectory planning under uncertain convective environments with optimal control and rapidly developing thunderstorms

Maryam Kamgarpour

Convective weather, and thunderstorm development in particular, represents a major source of disruption, delays and safety hazards in the Air Traffic Management system. Thunderstorms are challenging to forecast and evolve on relatively rapid timescales; th ...

2019

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