Publications associées à Théorie des valeurs extrêmes

Functional peaks-over-threshold analysis

Anthony Christopher Davison, Raphaël Gérard Théodore Michel Marie de Deloÿe et Fourcade de Fondeville

Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalised Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results. In this paper, w ...

WILEY2022

Causal modelling of heavy-tailed variables and confounders with application to river flow

Anthony Christopher Davison, Valérie Chavez

Confounding variables are a recurrent challenge for causal discovery and inference. In many situations, complex causal mechanisms only manifest themselves in extreme events, or take simpler forms in the extremes. Stimulated by data on extreme river flows a ...

SPRINGER2022

Sub‐asymptotic motivation for new conditional multivariate extreme models

Anthony Christopher Davison, Thomas Lugrin, Jonathan A. Tawn

Statistical models for extreme values are generally derived from non-degenerate probabilistic limits that can be used to approximate the distribution of events that exceed a selected high threshold. If convergence to the limit distribution is slow, then th ...

2021

Multivariate extremes over a random number of observations

Simone Padoan, Stefano Rizzelli

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated data, such as max ...

WILEY2021

Inference on the Angular Distribution of Extremes

Claudio Andri Semadeni

The spectral distribution plays a key role in the statistical modelling of multivariate extremes, as it defines the dependence structure of multivariate extreme-value distributions and characterizes the limiting distribution of the relative sizes of the co ...

EPFL2020

Extremal behaviour of aggregated data with an application to downscaling

Sebastian Engelke, Raphaël Gérard Théodore Michel Marie de Deloÿe et Fourcade de Fondeville

The distribution of spatially aggregated data from a stochastic process may exhibit tail behaviour different from that of its marginal distributions. For a large class of aggregating functionals we introduce the -extremal coefficient, which quantifies this ...

OXFORD UNIV PRESS2019

Functional Peaks-Over-Threshold Analysis for Complex Extreme Events

Most current risk assessment for complex extreme events relies on catalogues of similar events, either historical or generated artificially. In the latter, no existing methods produce completely new events with mathematically justified extrapolation above ...

EPFL2018

Contributions to Modelling Extremes of Spatial Data

Linda Frossard

The increasing interest in using statistical extreme value theory to analyse environmental data is mainly driven by the large impact extreme events can have. A difficulty with spatial data is that most existing inference methods for asymptotically justifie ...

EPFL2017

Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

Anthony Christopher Davison, Raphaël Huser

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high t ...

Springer2016

Monitoring-based safety verification at the Ultimate Limit State of fracture of the RC slab of a short span railway underpass

Eugen Brühwiler, Vasileios Grigoriou

The examination value of the railway traffic action effect is calculated from long-term monitoring data without resorting to load models and structural analysis. Monitoring data are obtained from measurements on a short span RC slab bridge. The action effe ...

Elsevier Science Bv2016