ARMAEn statistique, les modèles ARMA (modèles autorégressifs et moyenne mobile), ou aussi modèle de Box-Jenkins, sont les principaux modèles de séries temporelles. Étant donné une série temporelle , le modèle ARMA est un outil pour comprendre et prédire, éventuellement, les valeurs futures de cette série. Le modèle est composé de deux parties : une part autorégressive (AR) et une part moyenne-mobile (MA). Le modèle est généralement noté ARMA(,), où est l'ordre de la partie AR et l'ordre de la partie MA.
Moving-average modelIn time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure.
Test exact de FisherEn statistique, le test exact de Fisher est un test statistique exact utilisé pour l'analyse des tables de contingence. Ce test est utilisé en général avec de faibles effectifs mais il est valide pour toutes les tailles d'échantillons. Il doit son nom à son inventeur, Ronald Fisher. C'est un test qualifié d'exact car les probabilités peuvent être calculées exactement plutôt qu'en s'appuyant sur une approximation qui ne devient correcte qu'asymptotiquement comme pour le test du utilisé dans les tables de contingence.
Boschloo's testBoschloo's test is a statistical hypothesis test for analysing 2x2 contingency tables. It examines the association of two Bernoulli distributed random variables and is a uniformly more powerful alternative to Fisher's exact test. It was proposed in 1970 by R. D. Boschloo. A 2x2 contingency table visualizes independent observations of two binary variables and : The probability distribution of such tables can be classified into three distinct cases. The row sums and column sums are fixed in advance and not random.
Autoregressive integrated moving averageIn statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.
Test exactIn statistics, an exact (significance) test is a test such that if the null hypothesis is true, then all assumptions made during the derivation of the distribution of the test statistic are met. Using an exact test provides a significance test that maintains the type I error rate of the test () at the desired significance level of the test. For example, an exact test at a significance level of , when repeated over many samples where the null hypothesis is true, will reject at most of the time.
StatistiqueLa statistique est la discipline qui étudie des phénomènes à travers la collecte de données, leur traitement, leur analyse, l'interprétation des résultats et leur présentation afin de rendre ces données compréhensibles par tous. C'est à la fois une branche des mathématiques appliquées, une méthode et un ensemble de techniques. ce qui permet de différencier ses applications mathématiques avec une statistique (avec une minuscule). Le pluriel est également souvent utilisé pour la désigner : « les statistiques ».
Permutation testA permutation test (also called re-randomization test) is an exact statistical hypothesis test making use of the proof by contradiction. A permutation test involves two or more samples. The null hypothesis is that all samples come from the same distribution . Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of the test statistic is obtained by calculating all possible values of the test statistic under possible rearrangements of the observed data. Permutation tests are, therefore, a form of resampling.
Unit rootIn probability theory and statistics, a unit root is a feature of some stochastic processes (such as random walks) that can cause problems in statistical inference involving time series models. A linear stochastic process has a unit root if 1 is a root of the process's characteristic equation. Such a process is non-stationary but does not always have a trend. If the other roots of the characteristic equation lie inside the unit circle—that is, have a modulus (absolute value) less than one—then the first difference of the process will be stationary; otherwise, the process will need to be differenced multiple times to become stationary.
Edge-localized modeAn edge-localized mode (ELM) is a plasma instability occurring in the edge region of a tokamak plasma due to periodic relaxations of the edge transport barrier in high-confinement mode. Each ELM burst is associated with expulsion of particles and energy from the confined plasma into the scrape-off layer. This phenomenon was first observed in the ASDEX tokamak in 1981. Diamagnetic effects in the model equations expand the size of the parameter space in which solutions of repeated sawteeth can be recovered compared to a resistive MHD model.
