ARMA | EPFL Graph Search

En statistique, les modèles ARMA (modèles autorégressifs et moyenne mobile), ou aussi modèle de Box-Jenkins, sont les principaux modèles de séries temporelles. Étant donné une série temporelle , le modèle ARMA est un outil pour comprendre et prédire, éventuellement, les valeurs futures de cette série. Le modèle est composé de deux parties : une part autorégressive (AR) et une part moyenne-mobile (MA). Le modèle est généralement noté ARMA(,), où est l'ordre de la partie AR et l'ordre de la partie MA. Modèle autorégressif Processus autorégressif Un modèle autorégressif d'ordre , en abrégé AR(), s'écrit : où \varphi_1, \ldots, \varphi_p sont les paramètres du modèle, c est une constante et \varepsilon_t un bruit blanc. La constante est bien souvent omise dans la littérature, le processus étant alors dit centré. Des contraintes supplémentaires sur les paramètres sont nécessaires pour garantir la stationnarité. Par exemple, pour le m

Filtering Random Graph Processes Over Random Time-Varying Graphs

Andreas Loukas

Graph filters play a key role in processing the graph spectra of signals supported on the vertices of a graph. However, despite their widespread use, graph filters have been analyzed only in the deterministic setting, ignoring the impact of stochasticity in both the graph topology and the signal itself. To bridge this gap, we examine the statistical behavior of the two key filter types, finite impulse response and autoregressive moving average graph filters, when operating on random time-varying graph signals (or random graph processes) over random time-varying graphs. Our analysis shows that 1) in expectation, the filters behave as the same deterministic filters operating on a deterministic graph, being the expected graph, having as input signal a deterministic signal, being the expected signal, and 2) there are meaningful upper bounds for the variance of the filter output. We conclude this paper by proposing two novel ways of exploiting randomness to improve (joint graph-time) noise cancellation, as well as to reduce the computational complexity of graph filtering. As demonstrated by numerical results, these methods outperform the disjoint average and denoise algorithm and yield a (up to) four times complexity reduction, with a very little difference from the optimal solution.

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers2017

On the rate of convergence for the autocorrelation operator in functional autoregression

Alessia Caponera, Victor Panaretos

We consider the problem of estimating the autocorrelation operator of an autoregressive Hilbertian process. By means of a Tikhonov approach, we establish a general result that yields the convergence rate of the estimated autocorrelation operator as a function of the rate of convergence of the estimated lag zero and lag one autocovariance operators. The result is general in that it can accommodate any consistent estimators of the lagged autocovariances. Consequently it can be applied to processes under any mode of observation: complete, discrete, sparse, and/or with measurement errors. An appealing feature is that the result does not require delicate spectral decay assumptions on the autocovariances but instead rests on natural source conditions. The result is illustrated by application to important special cases. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

ELSEVIER2022

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Anthony Christopher Davison, Linda Frossard

We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland, the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results for both NAO and AAO confirm the importance of atmospheric dynamics for ozone variability and changes from local/regional to global scales.

Copernicus Publications2013

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Anthony Christopher Davison, Linda Frossard

Copernicus Publications2013