Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments

Runoff from urban environments is generally contaminated. These contaminants mostly originate from road traffic and building envelopes. Facade envelopes generate lead, zinc and even biocides, which are used for facade protection. Road traffic produces particles from tires and brakes. The transport of these pollutants to the environment is controlled by rainfall. The interval, duration and intensity of rainfall events are important as the dynamics of the pollutants are often modeled with non-linear buildup/washoff functions. Buildup occurs during dry weather when pollution accumulates, and is subsequently washed-off at the time of the following rainfall, contaminating surface runoff. Climate predictions include modified rainfall distributions, with changes in both number and intensity of events, even if the expected annual rainfall varies little. Consequently, pollutant concentrations in urban runoff driven by buildup/washoff processes will be affected by these changes in rainfall distributions. We investigated to what extent modifications in future rainfall distributions will impact the concentrations of pollutants present in urban surface runoff. The study used the example of Lausanne, Switzerland (temperate climate zone). Three emission scenarios (time horizon 2090), multiple combinations of RCM/GCM and modifications in rain event frequency were used to simulate future rainfall distributions with various characteristics. Simulated rainfall events were used as inputs for four pairs of buildup/washoff models, in order to compare future pollution concentrations in surface runoff. In this way, uncertainty in model structure was also investigated. Future concentrations were estimated to be between ±40% of today’s concentrations depending on the season and, importantly, on the choice of the RCM/GCM model. Overall, however, the dominant factor was the uncertainty inherent in buildup/washoff models, which dominated over the uncertainty in future rainfall distributions. Consequently, the choice of a proper buildup/washoff model, with calibrated site-specific coefficients, is a major factor in modeling future runoff concentrations from contaminated urban surfaces.

Lessivage des polluants urbains et changement climatique : l’influence des modèles

David Andrew Barry, Sylvain Coutu, Sébastien Kramer, Luca Rossi

Rainfall for the next century will be influenced by global warming. These modified rainfalls will have influences on rainfall runoff. In order to analyze these impacts, this study compared different buildup and washoff functions with several future rainfall series. These series of rain were first simulated with the Bartlett-Lewis method to disrupt the distribution of rainfall events in winter and summer. Then, the delta factor method has been applied to modify the intensity of rainfall under different scenarios of emissions. Three emissions scenarios were tested (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and for each of these scenarios, three estimates of the results (2.5th, 50th and 97.5th percentiles) were considered depending on the chain of General Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used. It was found that concentrations of leached pollutants are particularly susceptible to washoff functions and empirical parameters included in these functions. Disruption of rainfall also influences the leached concentrations in summer and winter. The emissions scenario has very little impact on levels instead of percentiles that play an important role in their distribution. The type of washoff function and the choice of GCMs and RCMs are important elements to evaluate the influence of climate change on pollutants washed into urban areas.

2012

Validation and application of an urban turbulence parameterisation scheme for mesoscale atmospheric models

Yves-Alain F. Roulet

Growing population, extensive use (and abuse) of the natural resources, increasing pollutants emissions in the atmosphere: these are a few obstacles (and not the least) one has to face with nowadays to ensure the sustainability of our planet in general, and of the air quality in particular. In the case of air pollution, the processes that govern the transport and the chemical transformation of pollutants are highly complex and non-linear. The use of numerical models for simulating meteorological fields, which in turn will determine the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, is thus a very appropriate tool to describe and understand the air pollution problematic. This work focuses on the meteorological simulation, using a mesoscale model. The stress is particularly put on the parameterisation of urban induced effects on the meteorological fields above a city. A detailed urban parameterisation scheme has been implemented in a mesoscale model in a previous work. This new scheme takes into account the presence of a city in a more accurate way as the traditional method usually used in mesoscale models. In the first part of this work, the urban module was validated for a one-dimensional off-line simulation within and above a street canyon in the city of Basel/Switzerland. The simulation results were compared with measurements taken within and above the same street canyon during an intensive observation period in the frame of the BUBBLE project (Basel UrBan Boundary Layer Experiment). The comparison with the measurements and with a simulation using the traditional urban parameterisation showed that the detailed urban scheme improved the quality of the simulation of turbulent fluxes and meteorological parameters (wind, temperature) in the urban canopy. Further on, the mesoscale was applied for a three-dimensional simulation over the city of Basel and its surroundings. The results showed that the model is able to reproduce the wind pattern that prevailed during the simulated episode, and that the accuracy of the temperature simulation in the city is improved with the urban module. In the third part of this work, an air quality study was performed over the Mexico City basin. The mesoscale model simulated the meteorological conditions for the chosen episode (1 and 2 March 1997). The results were then passed to TAPOM, a Eulerian photochemical model that calculates the space and time distribution of air pollutants. The simulated concentrations over the basin showed good agreement with the observed values. The validated model could then be used to test some emissions reduction scenarios for Mexico City. The use of the detailed urban parameterisation scheme for meteorological fields and air pollutants concentration simulation improved the quality of the results in almost all the applied situations. Consequently, the full modelling tool presented and validated in this work can be used for air quality modelling studies over cities and their surroundings.

EPFL2004

Improvement of an urban turbulence parametrization for meteorological operational forecast and air quality modeling

Clive Muller

During the last century, urban pollution has increased with the growth of cities. Urban air quality has become a high priority as it is directly linked to concerns such as human exposure and health. The present work is dedicated to urban air quality modeling with focus on urban meteorology. The main goal is to improve meteorological and air quality simulations in urban areas. Based on measurements and numerical air quality simulations, Chapter 3 describes the meteorological situation and tests an emission inventory for an ozone pollution episode in Mexico City (2 March 1997), in order to determine the principal factors to be accounted in an air quality study. The Mexico City case shows the great influence of meteorological conditions and pollutant emissions on air quality. A thorough understanding of the phenomena governing the meteorological conditions, like small scale convergence, and an accurate emission inventory validated by VOC measurements in the city, are sensitive elements in an air quality study. In Chapter 4, the presence of an Urban Heat Island (UHI) is underlined over the city of Basel (Switzerland) with the BUBBLE measurements. Further on, the ability of aLMo (the operational weather prediction model of MeteoSwiss) to reproduce the effect of a city on the boundary layer atmospheric flow fields is investigated. Results show that aLMo is not able to reproduce the UHI and hence that its surface scheme based on the Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) is not adapted for the urban areas. Therefore, the Buildings Effects Parametrization (BEP) which has been developed by Martilli et al.(2002) especially for urban areas, is implemented in aLMo. Results show that alMo is now able to reproduce the main behavior of the urban boundary layer as the UHI and BEP has hence a real enhancement potential for aLMo. Chapter 5 shows the sensitivity of aLMo with respect to its vertical resolution. In order to limit the sensitivity of aLMo to the grid resolution, BEP is modified. The mesoscale model furnishes the upper boundary conditions for the inner calculation of BEP. That is, BEP recalculates independently the vertical profiles of wind, temperature and energy based on the surface fluxes of momentum, heat and turbulent kinetic energy. The results obtained show a decrease in the sensitivity to the resolution and a better agreement with the measurements. Furthermore, the modified version of BEP gives additional meteorological fields (temperature, wind and TKE) in the urban canopy. The computed temperature in the urban canopy shows a good agreement with measurements in a Basel street canyon. This work shows that it is not necessary to have a high resolution for taking into account modification of the atmospheric flow fields induced by a city.