Gael Lederrey
Data-driven and model-driven methodologies can be regarded as competitive fields since they tackle similar problems such as prediction. However, these two fields can learn from each other to improve themselves. Indeed, data-driven methodologies have been developed to use advanced methodologies based on Big Data technologies. On the other hand, model-driven methodologies concentrate on developing mathematical models based on theory and expert knowledge to allow for interpretability and control. Through three main contributions, this thesis aims to bridge the gap between these two fields by using their strengths and applying them to its counterpart.Discrete Choice Models (DCMs) have shown tremendous success in many fields, such as transportation. However, they have not evolved to tackle the growing amount of available data. On the other hand, Machine Learning (ML) researchers have developed optimization algorithms to efficiently estimate complex models on large datasets. Similarly, faster estimation of DCMs on larger datasets would improve the efficiency of modelers as well as enable new research axes. Thus, we take inspiration from the large body of existing research in efficient parameter estimation with extensive data and large numbers of parameters in deep learning and apply it to DCMs. The first chapter of this thesis introduces the HAMABS algorithm, which combines three fundamental principles to enable faster parameter estimation of DCMs (20x speedup compared to standard estimation) without compromising the precision of the parameter estimates.Collecting large amounts of data can be cumbersome and costly, even in the era of Big Data. For example, ML researchers in Computer Vision have been developing generative deep learning models to augment datasets. DCM researchers face similar issues with tabular data, e.g. travel surveys. In addition, if the collection process is not performed correctly, these datasets can contain bias, lack consistency, or be unrepresentative of the actual population. The second chapter of this thesis introduces the DATGAN, a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) integrating expert knowledge to control the generation process. This new architecture allows modelers to generate controlled and representative synthetic data, outperforming similar state-of-the-art generative models. Finally, researchers are increasingly developing fully disaggregate agent-based simulation models, which use detailed synthetic populations to generate aggregate passenger flows. However, detailed disaggregate socioeconomic data is usually expensive to collect and heavily restricted in terms of access and usage. As such, synthetic populations are typically either drawn randomly from aggregate level control totals, limiting their quality, or tightly controlled, limiting their application and usefulness. To combat this, the third chapter extends the DATGAN methodology to generate highly detailed and consistent synthetic populations from small sample data. First, ciDATGAN learns to generate the variables in a low-sample highly detailed dataset, e.g. household travel survey. It then completes a high-sample dataset with few variables, e.g. microdata census, by generating the previously learned variables. The results show that this methodology can correct for bias and may enable the transfer of synthetic populations to new areas/contexts.
EPFL2022
