Publication

Chance-Constrained Trajectory Planning With Multimodal Environmental Uncertainty

Résumé

We tackle safe trajectory planning under Gaussian mixture model (GMM) uncertainty. Specifically, we use a GMM to model the multimodal behaviors of obstacles' uncertain states. Then, we develop a mixed-integer conic approximation to the chance-constrained trajectory planning problem with deterministic linear systems and polyhedral obstacles. When the GMM moments are estimated via finite samples, we develop a tight concentration bound to ensure the chance constraint with a desired confidence. Moreover, to limit the amount of constraint violation, we develop a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) approach corresponding to the chance constraints and derive a tractable approximation for known and estimated GMM moments. We verify our methods with state-of-the-art trajectory prediction algorithms and autonomous driving datasets.

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Concepts associés (28)
Entropic value at risk
In financial mathematics and stochastic optimization, the concept of risk measure is used to quantify the risk involved in a random outcome or risk position. Many risk measures have hitherto been proposed, each having certain characteristics. The entropic value at risk (EVaR) is a coherent risk measure introduced by Ahmadi-Javid, which is an upper bound for the value at risk (VaR) and the conditional value at risk (CVaR), obtained from the Chernoff inequality. The EVaR can also be represented by using the concept of relative entropy.
Value at risk
La VaR (de l'anglais value at risk, mot à mot : « valeur à risque », ou « valeur en jeu ») est une notion utilisée généralement pour mesurer le risque de marché d'un portefeuille d'instruments financiers. Elle correspond au montant de pertes qui ne devrait être dépassé qu'avec une probabilité donnée sur un horizon temporel donné. L'utilisation de la VaR n'est désormais plus limitée aux instruments financiers : on peut en faire un outil de gestion des risques dans tous les domaines (, par exemple).
Tail value at risk
Tail value at risk (TVaR), also known as tail conditional expectation (TCE) or conditional tail expectation (CTE), is a risk measure associated with the more general value at risk. It quantifies the expected value of the loss given that an event outside a given probability level has occurred. There are a number of related, but subtly different, formulations for TVaR in the literature. A common case in literature is to define TVaR and average value at risk as the same measure.
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