Prevention of forest fires in a changing climatic context in Ticino, southern Switzerland

Switzerland is not a place commonly associated with forest fires, unlike many areas of the nearby Mediterranean Basin. However, in this Alpine country, forest fires occur every year and destroy forests that fulfil various functions, the most socially and economically important of which is protection from natural hazards. Canton Ticino is the most affected by forest fires. The protective function is of vital importance for local communities. Most of Ticino's population lives in valley bottoms, where most transportation infrastructures are built, and without forests these are vulnerable to mass flows. In Ticino, forest fires occur mostly during the winter/spring season when dry conditions occur due to low precipitation and strong Foehn events. At this time, deciduous trees have shed their leaves and there is an important seasonal accumulation of dry litter on the forest floor. Fuel load has also increased over recent decades due to the abandonment, since about 1960, of traditional agro-forestry activities that removed dead wood, dry leaves and forage grass from the forest. Fuel in the forest is particularly flammable during the dry winter and leads to very high fire risks. Climate change has contributed to increasingly fire-prone conditions over the past decades and may also have had an effect on forest composition. Most Ticinese forest fires are anthropogenically triggered and negligence is the primary cause of fires. The only natural cause of fire is lightning, which affects forests particularly during summer, when heavy storms occur. This dissertation aimed at gaining a better scientific understanding of the interactions between landscapes, humans and forest fires in the context of climate change, in order to prescribe recommendations to achieve forest fire prevention and diminish fire related risks. We focused on the mechanisms leading to forest fires and adopted an integrated approach, which necessitated the use of a variety of methods: i) climate trend analyses, ii) flammability tests using a standardised ignition apparatus and a thermo-gravimetric analyser, iii) qualitative social science methods using focus groups and semi-structured interview techniques, iv) quantitative social science methods by means of a questionnaire. The results suggest that climate has changed in recent decades with more frequent and intense fire-prone conditions. Minimum and maximum temperatures have both increased significantly and relative humidity has decreased significantly for all daily measures during fire season. The present study suggests that fire-prone conditions are likely to become even more acute. Climate also has an important impact on the composition of the forests and the state of vegetation, as well as the condition of the fuel load. The most flammable species (Castanea sativa and some laurophyllous species) tend to occur near human settlements and this is of importance for management. Some of these species are expected to increase due to climate change. People involved with the forest fire prevention system perceived the actual fire policy as generally well working and well planned, and they perceive preparedness as strong, although discussions showed that the prevention of accidental fires is not addressed by the current fire policy. Effective prevention requires accurate information about the social aspects of forest fires, which until now has not been available in Ticino. Mechanisms leading to fires are not very well understood by locals, although many people identify correctly some technical aspects of forest fires. Depth of understanding is related to geography, gender, age, profession, marital status, income and life-style. Differences between these socio-demographic groups and geographical patterns suggest that prevention needs to be better targeted and that the population cannot be treated as a homogeneous entity. We conclude the dissertation with a series of recommendations for local authorities and people involved in the forest fire policy setting. These recommendations concern climate, vegetation flammability and forest fire prevention in Ticino.

The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years

Jed Oliver Kaplan, Kristen Marie Krumhardt

The long residence time of carbon in forests and soils means that both the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere are influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half-millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO2 concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify the importance of these processes, we performed a series of simulations with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO2 concentrations. Although land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3Pg, whereas increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the 20th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15Pg. Anthropogenic land use caused between 25Pg of carbon emissions and 5Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12Pg of carbon at the present day.

2012

Ecological response of tree saplings to simulated climate change along an elevational gradient (CLIMARBRE)

María Paula Sanginés De Cárcer

Switzerland will face higher temperature increases than the global average, which will have strong impacts on the mountain ecosystems. How tree species will respond to future climate change scenarios, and what mechanisms will they adopt, remains as a gap of knowledge in ecological research. Foresters will have to make short-term decisions and plan future managements under the great uncertainty of climate change and they demand answers to know if the current species will cope with the predicted climate change and to what extent the ecological goods and services will be affected (e.g. timber industry). The project CLIMARBRE was developed in order to ease and support their decision making by providing an advanced knowledge about the responses of beech and spruce regeneration to simulated climate change (specifically, warmer and drier conditions) in the wooded pastures of the Swiss Jura mountains. This project, which was built on the interface between fundamental research in forestry ecology and applied sciences, should attract the attention of foresters, managers of natural environments and of the general public. By using transplantation along an elevational gradient, in the Jura mountains, ârealisticâ climate conditions were created to specifically simulated three potential future climatic scenarios from the IPCC (from A1B to A2). This space for time approach enabled the assessment of saplingsâ responses to simulated climate change and their acclimation abilities. Saplings adapted to subalpine conditions at 1350 m were collected and transplanted towards lower altitudes exposing them to an average increase of 6.3áµC and a reduction in 30% of precipitation, at the lowest site throughout the study period. The main findings include i) a longer growing season due to induced-elevation warming (downward shift) could not fully account for the species-specific positive growth responses; (ii) the contrasting species growth responses were linked to different sensitivities to elevated vapor-pressure deficits; (iii) models could better account for the growth response to warming after incorporating extreme climatic events and their effects; iv) beech leaves showed an increase of xeromorphism through the increase of the cuticle thickness, vein network and smaller stomata, associated, to a higher leaf area v) which allowed it to grow in warmer conditions while coping with an increase of evaporative; vi) and finally, the linkage between responses at tree, leaf, tissue and soil level, through a multiple level approach, improved the mechanistic understanding of these species capacities to respond to simulated climate change.

EPFL2017

Tall and old Amazonian forests are more resilient to precipitation variability

Francesco Giardina

Climate change is altering the natural equilibrium of the Amazon ecosystem, which is in turn deeply connected to the Earth’s biogeochemical cycles. Understanding this relationship aids optimal rainforests management in the future. Previous research has investigated the role of environmental variables and climatic drivers, neglecting the influence of forest height and age. This study uses remote sensing observations of precipitation, vapour-pressure deficit and canopy height along with model estimates of tree age and aboveground biomass to show that tall and old Amazonian trees are three times less sensitive to precipitation variability than younger and smaller forests. Canopy size is found to be equally important to mean precipitation in controlling the response to interannual climate variability. Our results align with those of in-situ experiments. These findings could help better predict the response of the Amazon forest to future droughts and water stress.

2017

Ecological response of tree saplings to simulated climate change along an elevational gradient (CLIMARBRE)

María Paula Sanginés De Cárcer

EPFL2017