Focused information criterion

In statistics, the focused information criterion (FIC) is a method for selecting the most appropriate model among a set of competitors for a given data set. Unlike most other model selection strategies, like the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the deviance information criterion (DIC), the FIC does not attempt to assess the overall fit of candidate models but focuses attention directly on the parameter of primary interest with the statistical analysis, say , for which competing models lead to different estimates, say for model . The FIC method consists in first developing an exact or approximate expression for the precision or quality of each estimator, say for , and then use data to estimate these precision measures, say . In the end the model with best estimated precision is selected. The FIC methodology was developed by Gerda Claeskens and Nils Lid Hjort, first in two 2003 discussion articles in Journal of the American Statistical Association and later on in other papers and in their 2008 book. The concrete formulae and implementation for FIC depend firstly on the particular parameter of interest, the choice of which does not depend on mathematics but on the scientific and statistical context. Thus the FIC apparatus may be selecting one model as most appropriate for estimating a quantile of a distribution but preferring another model as best for estimating the mean value. Secondly, the FIC formulae depend on the specifics of the models used for the observed data and also on how precision is to be measured. The clearest case is where precision is taken to be mean squared error, say in terms of squared bias and variance for the estimator associated with model . FIC formulae are then available in a variety of situations, both for handling parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric situations, involving separate estimation of squared bias and variance, leading to estimated precision . In the end the FIC selects the model with smallest estimated mean squared error.