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Concept
Return period
Summary
A return period, also known as a recurrence interval or repeat interval, is an average time or an estimated average time between events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or river discharge flows to occur.
It is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data over an extended period, and is used usually for risk analysis. Examples include deciding whether a project should be allowed to go forward in a zone of a certain risk or designing structures to withstand events with a certain return period. The following analysis assumes that the probability of the event occurring does not vary over time and is independent of past events.
Recurrence interval
n number of years on record;
m is the rank of observed occurrences when arranged in descending order
For floods, the event may be measured in terms of m3/s or height; for storm surges, in terms of the height of the surge, and similarly for other events. This is Weibull's Formula.
The theoretical return period between occurrences is the inverse of the average frequency of occurrence. For example, a 10-year flood has a 1/10 = 0.1 or 10% chance of being exceeded in any one year and a 50-year flood has a 0.02 or 2% chance of being exceeded in any one year.
This does not mean that a 100-year flood will happen regularly every 100 years, or only once in 100 years. Despite the connotations of the name "return period". In any given 100-year period, a 100-year event may occur once, twice, more, or not at all, and each outcome has a probability that can be computed as below.
Also, the estimated return period below is a statistic: it is computed from a set of data (the observations), as distinct from the theoretical value in an idealized distribution. One does not actually know that a certain or greater magnitude happens with 1% probability, only that it has been observed exactly once in 100 years.
Official source
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