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Concept
100-year flood
Summary
A 100-year flood is a flood event that has on average a 1 in 100 chance (1% probability) of being equaled or exceeded in any given year.
The 100-year flood is also referred to as the 1% flood. For coastal or lake flooding, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flood elevation or depth, and may include wave effects. For river systems, the 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flowrate. Based on the expected 100-year flood flow rate, the flood water level can be mapped as an area of inundation. The resulting floodplain map is referred to as the 100-year floodplain. Estimates of the 100-year flood flowrate and other streamflow statistics for any stream in the United States are available. In the UK, the Environment Agency publishes a comprehensive map of all areas at risk of a 1 in 100 year flood. Areas near the coast of an ocean or large lake also can be flooded by combinations of tide, storm surge, and waves. Maps of the riverine or coastal 100-year floodplain may figure importantly in building permits, environmental regulations, and flood insurance. These analyses generally represent 20th-century climate.
A common misunderstanding is that a 100-year flood is likely to occur only once in a 100-year period. In fact, there is approximately a 63.4% chance of one or more 100-year floods occurring in any 100-year period. On the Danube River at Passau, Germany, the actual intervals between 100-year floods during 1501 to 2013 ranged from 37 to 192 years. The probability Pe that one or more floods occurring during any period will exceed a given flood threshold can be expressed, using the binomial distribution, as
where T is the threshold return period (e.g. 100-yr, 50-yr, 25-yr, and so forth), and n is the number of years in the period. The probability of exceedance Pe is also described as the natural, inherent, or hydrologic risk of failure. However, the expected value of the number of 100-year floods occurring in any 100-year period is 1.
Ten-year floods have a 10% chance of occurring in any given year (Pe =0.
Official source
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