CCN predictions: Is theory sufficient for assessments of the indirect effect?

This study quantitatively assesses the sensitivity of cloud droplet number (CDNC) to errors in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) predictions that arise from application of Köhler theory. The CDNC uncertainty is assessed by forcing a droplet activation parameterization with a comprehensive dataset of CCN activity and aerosol size and chemical composition obtained during the ICARTT field campaign in August 2004. Our analysis suggests that, for a diverse range of updraft velocity, droplet growth kinetics and airmass origin, the error in predicted CDNC is (at most) half of the CCN prediction error. This means that the typical 20-50% error in ambient CCN closure studies would result in a 10-25% error in CDNC. For the first time, a quantitative link between aerosol and CDNC prediction errors is available, and can be the basis of a robust uncertainty analysis of the first aerosol indirect effect. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hygroscopicity and composition of California CCN during summer 2010

Athanasios Nenes

We present an overview and analysis of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sampled in California by a NOAA WP-3D aircraft during the 2010 CalNex project. Four distinct geographical regions are characterized, including the Los Angeles basin, the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys, and the eastern Pacific Ocean west of southern California. Median size distributions in the Central Valley were unimodal (Dg ∼ 25nm) with a larger fraction of organic species and smaller fraction of nitrate species in the Sacramento Valley aerosol than in the San Joaquin Valley aerosol. Size distributions in the Los Angeles basin and marine outflow were bimodal (geometric mean diameter, Dg ∼ 30, 90-100nm) with similar organic fractions and some replacement of nitrate with sulfate in the marine outflow. Both fine particle and CCN concentrations were found to decrease rapidly above the planetary boundary layer (∼2 km altitude), with CCN concentrations in the boundary layer ranging from ∼102-104cm-3 STP, while fine particle concentrations (0.004-1 m diameters) ranged from ∼103-10 5 cm-3 STP. The CCN-active number fraction varied between 0-100% in the Los Angeles Basin and Marine Outflow, but was substantially lower (0-40%) in the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys. Values of the hygroscopicity parameter, , inferred from the CCN measurements varied from 0.1-0.25, with the highest values in the marine outflow and the lowest values in the Sacramento Valley. The values agreed well with the predictions based on size-resolved aerosol composition, but were overpredicted by almost twofold when size-averaged composition was used. CCN closure was assessed for simplified compositional and mixing state assumptions, and it was found that assuming the aerosol to be internally mixed overpredicted CCN concentrations by 30-75% for all air mass types except within the Sacramento Valley, where good closure (overprediction < 10%) was achieved by assuming insoluble organics. Assuming an externally-mixed aerosol fraction or incorporating size-resolved composition data improved closure in the other three regions, consistent with the bimodal nature of the aerosol size distribution. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Blackwell Publishing Ltd2012

Incorporating an advanced aerosol activation parameterization into WRF-CAM5: Model evaluation and parameterization intercomparison

Athanasios Nenes, Xiuwei Zhang, Yi Zhang

Aerosol activation into cloud droplets is an important process that governs aerosol indirect effects. The advanced treatment of aerosol activation by Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) and its recent updates, collectively called the FN series, have been incorporated into a newly developed regional coupled climate-air quality model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (WRF-CAM5) to simulate aerosol-cloud interactions in both resolved and convective clouds. The model is applied to East Asia for two full years of 2005 and 2010. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed for model predictions of meteorological, radiative, and cloud variables, chemical concentrations, and column mass abundances against satellite data and surface observations from air quality monitoring sites across East Asia. The model performs overall well for major meteorological variables including near-surface temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitable water, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and column mass abundances of CO, SO2, NO2, HCHO, and O3 in terms of both magnitudes and spatial distributions. Larger biases exist in the predictions of surface concentrations of CO and NOx at all sites and SO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations at some sites, aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei over ocean, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud liquid and ice water path, and cloud optical thickness. Compared with the default Abdul-Razzack Ghan (2000) parameterization, simulations with the FN series produce ~107-113% higher CDNC, with half of the difference attributable to the higher aerosol activation fraction by the FN series and the remaining half due to feedbacks in subsequent cloud microphysical processes. With the higher CDNC, the FN series are more skillful in simulating cloud water path, cloud optical thickness, downward shortwave radiation, shortwave cloud forcing, and precipitation. The model evaluation identifies several areas of improvements including emissions and their vertical allocation as well as model formulations such as aerosol formation, cloud droplet nucleation, and ice nucleation. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Wiley-Blackwell2015

Incorporation of advanced aerosol activation treatments into CESM/CAM5: Model evaluation and impacts on aerosol indirect effects

Athanasios Nenes, Xiuwei Zhang, Yi Zhang

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in the science of anthropogenic climate change is from aerosol-cloud interactions. The activation of aerosols into cloud droplets is a direct microphysical linkage between aerosols and clouds; parameterizations of this process link aerosol with cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the resulting indirect effects. Small differences between parameterizations can have a large impact on the spatiotemporal distributions of activated aerosols and the resulting cloud properties. In this work, we incorporate a series of aerosol activation schemes into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.1 within the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM/CAM5) which include factors such as insoluble aerosol adsorption and giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics to understand their individual impacts on global-scale cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Compared to the existing activation scheme in CESM/CAM5, this series of activation schemes increase the computation time by ∼10% but leads to predicted CDNC in better agreement with satellite-derived/in situ values in many regions with high CDNC but in worse agreement for some regions with low CDNC. Large percentage changes in predicted CDNC occur over desert and oceanic regions, owing to the enhanced activation of dust from insoluble aerosol adsorption and reduced activation of sea spray aerosol after accounting for giant CCN activation kinetics. Comparison of CESM/CAM5 predictions against satellite-derived cloud optical thickness and liquid water path shows that the updated activation schemes generally improve the low biases. Globally, the incorporation of all updated schemes leads to an average increase in column CDNC of 150% and an increase (more negative) in shortwave cloud forcing of 12%. With the improvement of model-predicted CDNCs and better agreement with most satellite-derived cloud properties in many regions, the inclusion of these aerosol activation processes should result in better predictions of radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions. © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

Copernicus GmbH2014

Incorporating an advanced aerosol activation parameterization into WRF-CAM5: Model evaluation and parameterization intercomparison

Athanasios Nenes, Xiuwei Zhang, Yi Zhang

Wiley-Blackwell2015

Incorporation of advanced aerosol activation treatments into CESM/CAM5: Model evaluation and impacts on aerosol indirect effects

Athanasios Nenes, Xiuwei Zhang, Yi Zhang

Copernicus GmbH2014

Hygroscopicity and composition of California CCN during summer 2010

Athanasios Nenes

Blackwell Publishing Ltd2012