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Estimation of Self-Exciting Point Processes from Time-Censored Data

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Standard error

The standard error (SE) of a statistic (usually an estimate of a parameter) is the standard deviation of its sampling distribution or an estimate of that standard deviation. If the statistic is the sample mean, it is called the standard error of the mean (SEM). The sampling distribution of a mean is generated by repeated sampling from the same population and recording of the sample means obtained. This forms a distribution of different means, and this distribution has its own mean and variance.

Estimation theory

Estimation theory is a branch of statistics that deals with estimating the values of parameters based on measured empirical data that has a random component. The parameters describe an underlying physical setting in such a way that their value affects the distribution of the measured data. An estimator attempts to approximate the unknown parameters using the measurements.

Fixed-point iteration

In numerical analysis, fixed-point iteration is a method of computing fixed points of a function. More specifically, given a function defined on the real numbers with real values and given a point in the domain of , the fixed-point iteration is which gives rise to the sequence of iterated function applications which is hoped to converge to a point . If is continuous, then one can prove that the obtained is a fixed point of , i.e., More generally, the function can be defined on any metric space with values in that same space.

Bessel's correction

In statistics, Bessel's correction is the use of n − 1 instead of n in the formula for the sample variance and sample standard deviation, where n is the number of observations in a sample. This method corrects the bias in the estimation of the population variance. It also partially corrects the bias in the estimation of the population standard deviation. However, the correction often increases the mean squared error in these estimations. This technique is named after Friedrich Bessel.

Iterated function

In mathematics, an iterated function is a function X → X (that is, a function from some set X to itself) which is obtained by composing another function f : X → X with itself a certain number of times. The process of repeatedly applying the same function is called iteration. In this process, starting from some initial object, the result of applying a given function is fed again in the function as input, and this process is repeated. For example on the image on the right: with the circle‐shaped symbol of function composition.

Power iteration

In mathematics, power iteration (also known as the power method) is an eigenvalue algorithm: given a diagonalizable matrix , the algorithm will produce a number , which is the greatest (in absolute value) eigenvalue of , and a nonzero vector , which is a corresponding eigenvector of , that is, . The algorithm is also known as the Von Mises iteration. Power iteration is a very simple algorithm, but it may converge slowly.

Sample mean and covariance

The sample mean (sample average) or empirical mean (empirical average), and the sample covariance or empirical covariance are statistics computed from a sample of data on one or more random variables. The sample mean is the average value (or mean value) of a sample of numbers taken from a larger population of numbers, where "population" indicates not number of people but the entirety of relevant data, whether collected or not. A sample of 40 companies' sales from the Fortune 500 might be used for convenience instead of looking at the population, all 500 companies' sales.

Censoring (statistics)

In statistics, censoring is a condition in which the value of a measurement or observation is only partially known. For example, suppose a study is conducted to measure the impact of a drug on mortality rate. In such a study, it may be known that an individual's age at death is at least 75 years (but may be more). Such a situation could occur if the individual withdrew from the study at age 75, or if the individual is currently alive at the age of 75. Censoring also occurs when a value occurs outside the range of a measuring instrument.

Maximum likelihood estimation

In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference.

Iterated function system

In mathematics, iterated function systems (IFSs) are a method of constructing fractals; the resulting fractals are often self-similar. IFS fractals are more related to set theory than fractal geometry. They were introduced in 1981. IFS fractals, as they are normally called, can be of any number of dimensions, but are commonly computed and drawn in 2D. The fractal is made up of the union of several copies of itself, each copy being transformed by a function (hence "function system").