Blackouts risk evaluation by Monte Carlo Simulation regarding cascading outages and system frequency deviation

Omid Alizadeh Mousavi, Mokhtar Bozorg
Elsevier, 2012
Article

In this paper, a blackout risk assessment method is proposed considering the effects of cascading outages, the active power and frequency response of the system. Here, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to analyze the risk of blackouts by generating rare event scenarios. In the proposed model the cascading outages are considered as the result of transmission equipments overloading and hidden failure of the protection system, which they can increase the probability of large blackouts. The primary frequency control of the generators and the frequency sensitivity of the loads are also modeled in each step of cascading outages. A DC OPF model is used as the operator remedial action to minimize the lost load. The obtained lost load data are used to calculate Expected Load Not Served (ELNS) and Complementary Cumulative Density Function (CCDF) to analyze the risk of blackout. The CCDF of the lost load data is directly calculated from the lost load data and Gaussian Mixture Method (GMM) is applied to estimate the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) and the smoothed CCDF of the lost load data. Based on the proposed method, the power law distribution of the blackout size is studied by looking at the IEEE 118 bus test case. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Omid Alizadeh Mousavi, Mokhtar Bozorg
Elsevier, 2012
Article

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https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/178770?ln=fr

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Assessment of HVDC grid segmentation for reducing the risk of cascading outages and blackouts

Omid Alizadeh Mousavi, Lazar Bizumic

This paper deals with a DC-segmentation of interconnected power systems which represents a relatively new and interesting approach that could be a potential solution for mitigation of the cascading outages effects. The DC-segmentation is defined as the use of DC links to split large AC grids into sets of smaller asynchronously operated AC segments. By implementing grid segmentation, it should be plausible to improve the controllability of power flows, to limit the propagation of disturbances, to reduce the risk of cascading outages and blackouts and to decrease the complexity of power systems. The statistical analysis of time series of blackouts size measures demonstrates the power law region in distributions of different quantities. This heavy tail behavior implies that the blackouts of different scales may take place and the extreme events cannot be overlooked. In order to take into account the risk of large blackouts, a new risk assessment method is developed and implemented. This method is based on Monte Carlo Simulation and takes into account the cascading outages of transmission system due to the overloading and the hidden failure of protection systems and the response of generators/loads/HVDC controllers to the power imbalance or the frequency deviation. The effectiveness of the DC-segmentation for reducing the risk of large blackouts is assessed using the proposed risk assessment method applied to a simplified model of the potential future intercontinental power grid of Europe and Russia. The distributions and expected values of the blackout size quantities (including Load Not Served (LNS), Number of Transmission component Outage (NTO) and Energy Not Served (ENS)) are evaluated before and after the DC-segmentation.

IEEE2013

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The study of the dynamics taking place during power system blackouts is a subject that receives continuous attention in view of its inherent complexity and relevant consequences. Within this context, the paper aims at studying the role of the frequency control reserves (FCRs) on the cascading outages and the relevant short-term dynamics associated with the blackout mechanisms. The relationship between the large and small blackout frequency with respect to the value of FCRs is assessed. More in particular, the main contribution of this paper is to study the influence of the power system interconnections on its pre- and post-blackout behavior. For this investigation, a statistical procedure, based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), is proposed. It performs a blackout risk analysis considering cascading outages as well as generators/loads response to the frequency deviation. The proposed procedure is then applied to the IEEE 118 bus system as an interconnected network characterized by three areas. The distributions and expected values of the blackout size are assessed for the whole system as well as for each area.

Elsevier2014

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Système

Un système est un ensemble d' interagissant entre eux selon certains principes ou règles. Par exemple une molécule, le système solaire, une ruche, une société humaine, un parti, une armée etc. Un s

Méthode de Monte-Carlo

Une méthode de Monte-Carlo, ou méthode Monte-Carlo, est une méthode algorithmique visant à calculer une valeur numérique approchée en utilisant des procédés aléatoires, c'est-à-dire des techniques p

AC power

In an electric circuit, instantaneous power is the time rate of flow of energy past a given point of the circuit. In alternating current circuits, energy storage elements such as inductors and capac