Re-entry survival analysis and ground risk assessment of space debris considering by-products generation

Space debris that re-enter the Earth's atmosphere can be partially or fully ablated along the trajectory path after hitting the atmosphere layers, once these become denser (approximately below 82 km). This paper combines re-entry survival analysis to by-product generation analyses according to specific trajectory analysis and different levels of modelling within the re-entry simulation tool. Particular attention is made on metallic alloy decomposition and metallic oxides formation from the debris' materials ablation. Generic alloys present within satellite constructions are considered. The flow field in the induced shock layer is considered to be in non-equilibrium and the trajectory tool is based on a 3DOF object-oriented approach. The by-product analyses give important information on emitted species in the atmosphere at different altitudes, and the risk of substances reaching the ground is evaluated as a function of the initial break-up altitude. The non-equilibrium atmospheric chemistry within the shock layer has a significant impact for the re-entry analysis.