Urne de PólyaEn mathématiques, l’expérience de l’urne de Pólya est un problème de probabilités dans lequel une urne reçoit successivement des boules de couleur en fonction de tirages avec remise. La dénomination fait référence au mathématicien George Pólya qui a proposé ce modèle. Dans sa version la plus simple, la composition initiale de l’urne est de deux boules de couleurs différentes et chaque tirage d’une boule entraine l’ajout d’une boule de la même couleur.
Estimateur de Laplace–BayesEn théorie des probabilités et en statistiques, l'estimateur de Laplace–Bayes (ou règle de succession de Laplace) est une formule permettant de donner une approximation du terme a posteriori de la formule de Bayes. Elle a été introduite au siècle pour répondre au problème : quelle la probabilité que le Soleil se lève demain ? Soit des variables aléatoires indépendantes à valeur binaire (0 ou 1). On suppose qu'elles suivent toutes une distribution de Bernouilli de même paramètre p.
Variational Bayesian methodsVariational Bayesian methods are a family of techniques for approximating intractable integrals arising in Bayesian inference and machine learning. They are typically used in complex statistical models consisting of observed variables (usually termed "data") as well as unknown parameters and latent variables, with various sorts of relationships among the three types of random variables, as might be described by a graphical model. As typical in Bayesian inference, the parameters and latent variables are grouped together as "unobserved variables".
Dirichlet negative multinomial distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the Dirichlet negative multinomial distribution is a multivariate distribution on the non-negative integers. It is a multivariate extension of the beta negative binomial distribution. It is also a generalization of the negative multinomial distribution (NM(k, p)) allowing for heterogeneity or overdispersion to the probability vector. It is used in quantitative marketing research to flexibly model the number of household transactions across multiple brands.
Dirichlet processIn probability theory, Dirichlet processes (after the distribution associated with Peter Gustav Lejeune Dirichlet) are a family of stochastic processes whose realizations are probability distributions. In other words, a Dirichlet process is a probability distribution whose range is itself a set of probability distributions. It is often used in Bayesian inference to describe the prior knowledge about the distribution of random variables—how likely it is that the random variables are distributed according to one or another particular distribution.
Plate notationIn Bayesian inference, plate notation is a method of representing variables that repeat in a graphical model. Instead of drawing each repeated variable individually, a plate or rectangle is used to group variables into a subgraph that repeat together, and a number is drawn on the plate to represent the number of repetitions of the subgraph in the plate. The assumptions are that the subgraph is duplicated that many times, the variables in the subgraph are indexed by the repetition number, and any links that cross a plate boundary are replicated once for each subgraph repetition.
Jeffreys priorIn Bayesian probability, the Jeffreys prior, named after Sir Harold Jeffreys, is a non-informative prior distribution for a parameter space; its density function is proportional to the square root of the determinant of the Fisher information matrix: It has the key feature that it is invariant under a change of coordinates for the parameter vector . That is, the relative probability assigned to a volume of a probability space using a Jeffreys prior will be the same regardless of the parameterization used to define the Jeffreys prior.
Concentration parameterIn probability theory and statistics, a concentration parameter is a special kind of numerical parameter of a parametric family of probability distributions. Concentration parameters occur in two kinds of distribution: In the Von Mises–Fisher distribution, and in conjunction with distributions whose domain is a probability distribution, such as the symmetric Dirichlet distribution and the Dirichlet process. The rest of this article focuses on the latter usage.
Allocation de Dirichlet latenteDans le domaine du traitement automatique des langues, l’allocation de Dirichlet latente (de l’anglais Latent Dirichlet Allocation) ou LDA est un modèle génératif probabiliste permettant d’expliquer des ensembles d’observations, par le moyen de groupes non observés, eux-mêmes définis par des similarités de données. Par exemple, si les observations () sont les mots collectés dans un ensemble de documents textuels (), le modèle LDA suppose que chaque document () est un mélange () d’un petit nombre de sujets ou thèmes ( topics), et que la génération de chaque occurrence d’un mot () est attribuable (probabilité) à l’un des thèmes () du document.
Logarithmically concave functionIn convex analysis, a non-negative function f : Rn → R+ is logarithmically concave (or log-concave for short) if its domain is a convex set, and if it satisfies the inequality for all x,y ∈ dom f and 0 < θ < 1. If f is strictly positive, this is equivalent to saying that the logarithm of the function, log ∘ f, is concave; that is, for all x,y ∈ dom f and 0 < θ < 1. Examples of log-concave functions are the 0-1 indicator functions of convex sets (which requires the more flexible definition), and the Gaussian function.
