Sonja Rieder
In this thesis, we treat robust estimation for the parameters of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which are the mean, the variance, and the friction. We start by considering classical maximum likelihood estimation. For the simulation study, where we also investigate the choice of the time lag, we use the method of moment (MoM) estimator as initial estimator for the friction parameter of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). However, in several aspects the MLE is not robust. For robustification, we first derive elementary M-estimates by extending the method of M-estimation from Huber (1981). We use an intuitively robustified MoM estimate as initial estimate and compare by means of simulation the M-estimate with the MLE. This approach is, however, only ad-hoc since Huber’s minimum Fisher information and minimax asymptotic variance theory remains incomplete for simultaneous location and scale, and does not cover more general models (as for example the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process). A more general robustness concept due to Kohl et al. (2010), Rieder (1994), and Staab (1984) is based on local asymptotic normality (LAN), asymptotically linear (AL) estimates, and shrinking neighborhoods. We then apply this concept to the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As a measure of robustness, we consider the maximum asymptotic mean square error (maxasyMSE), which is determined by the influence curve (IC) of AL estimates. The IC represents the standardized influence of an individual observation on the estimator given the past. For two kind of neighborhoods (average and average square neighborhoods) we obtain optimally robust ICs. In case of average neighborhoods, their graph exhibits surprising, redescending behavior. For average square neighborhoods the graph is between the one of the elementary M-estimates and the MLE. Finally, we discuss the estimator construction, that is, the problem of constructing an estimator from the family of optimal ICs. We carry out in our context the One-Step construction dating back to LeCam and use both an intuitively robustified MoM estimate and the elementary M-estimate as initial estimate. This results in optimally AL estimates (for average and average square neighborhoods). By means of simulation we then compare the different estimators: MLE, elementary M-estimates, and optimally AL estimates. In addition, we give an application to electricity prices.
EPFL2012
