Predictability | EPFL Graph Search

Predictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made, either qualitatively or quantitatively. Predictability and causality Causal determinism has a strong relationship with predictability. Perfect predictability implies strict determinism, but lack of predictability does not necessarily imply lack of determinism. Limitations on predictability could be caused by factors such as a lack of information or excessive complexity. In experimental physics, there are always observational errors determining variables such as positions and velocities. So perfect prediction is practically impossible. Moreover, in modern quantum mechanics, Werner Heisenberg's indeterminacy principle puts limits on the accuracy with which such quantities can be known. So such perfect predictability is also theoretically impossible. Laplace's demon Laplace's demon is a supreme intelligence who could completely predict the one possible future

Growth and characterization of specific self-assembled supramolecular architectures at crystal surfaces

Marta Canas Ventura

In the framework of this thesis self-assembled supramolecular architectures of several molecular species on crystal metal surfaces are characterized. These investigations combine results obtained by means of scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS), X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS), and Near-Edge X-Ray Absorption Fine Structure Spectroscopy (NEXAFS). The interest in controlling the formation of specific arrangements of supramolecular ensembles at surfaces is motivated to a great extent by the prospect to design molecular devices and nanomaterials with customized properties. The goal is a "spontaneous" creation of targeted, well-ordered molecular architectures, which shall be achieved by taking advantage of the molecule's propensity to self-assemble. Control means, in this context, predictability. This term address the accuracy of the prediction of the structures resulting from molecular self-assembly for systems exhibiting different characteristics. Here, system stands for a particular combination of a single-crystal surface and adsorbed molecular species. In a first part, the focus is given to the impact of a Pd(111) surface exhibiting high chemical activity. Due to surface induced deprotonation two resulting chemical states are found for the adsorbed terephthalic acid species. Deprotonation of the carboxyl moieties is observed to affect the topology of the molecular assemblies even though hydrogen bonds (H-bonds) are responsible for the stabilization of assemblies of both, intact and deprotonated molecular species. Therefore, the selective fabrication of a single specific molecular structure becomes a challenge when the surface is prone to induce chemical reactions. Secondly, a molecular species exhibiting conformational flexibility is studied on a largely inert Au(111) surface. It is observed that the characteristic conformational flexibility is also active on the surface, and the molecule is found to adopt different conformations depending on the locally most favorable bonding motif. In particular, phenyl groups may undergo a rotation such that one-dimensional chains can be stabilized by means of intermolecular H-bonds. This phenomenon is very interesting from an adsorbate-substrate interaction point of view, but it limits the predictability of supramolecular structures formed upon self-assembly. In a third step, a comparative study of the self-assembly of three closely related molecular species highlights the impact of concurrent competing intermolecular interactions. Molecules exhibiting an increasing number of possible interaction channels are found to assemble into an increasing number of distinct supramolecular architectures. The most flexible molecular species allowing for different hydrogen-bonding patterns as well as dipolar coupling self-assembles into various structurally complex architectures. Structural predictability, however, is low since the formation of one or the other assembly appears to depend on small variations in sample preparation conditions and on poorly controllable local surface properties. Finally, a system where the resulting structures fully agree with predictions evidences the possibility to control the formation of targeted specific supramolecular architectures. The formation of well ordered bimolecular ribbons and wires over extended length scales is accomplished by the rational choice of both, complementary building blocks for the selective formation of three-fold H-bonds and a nanostructured surface to guide the molecular self-assembly. Furthermore, the impact of H-bond formation on the electronic structure of self-assembled molecular building blocks is probed by STS measurements. The experimental data reveal shifts in the electronic levels depending on the H-bond configuration and on the local characteristics of the underlying surface. In order to improve the precision of such a study, single molecules, homo- and heteromolecular dimers as well as trimers are successfully isolated and assembled by molecular manipulation with the STM tip. Further STS studies on such artificially assembled structures are suggested.

EPFL2008

Hyper-emotional neurophysiology in a rat model of autism

Mônica Regina Favre

Autism is a pervasive neurodevelopmental disorder of unknown etiology, characterized by a spectrum of symptoms of social impairment, abnormal communication, and unusual restricted, inflexible behaviors. Patients also frequently present various levels of sensory, learning, memory and attention abnormalities, anxiety and phobias, in addition to disturbances in gastrointestinal, sleep, metabolic and immune functions, also with higher rates of physical malformations and seizures. There is currently no empirically based consensus on the causes of symptoms and their remarkable heterogeneity. It is also unknown if associated symptoms are directly linked to autism etiology or if they represent parallel comorbidities. In consequence of our incomplete understanding of the disease process, treatment options are vast and not equally efficacious across all diagnosed individuals. Thus, autism today leads to a lifelong disability that requires significant assistance from health care providers, educational systems and family members. Ultimately, improved diagnostic indicators and personalized therapies should allow the autistic individual to live with reduced costs and more independently. Prenatal exposure to compounds such as valproic acid (VPA) has been associated with higher risk for development of autistic features. The teratogenic and neurodevelopmental effects of VPA in humans are replicated in rodents exposed early in embryonic development, at the time neural tube closure. Thus, the VPA-rat has emerged as a well validated model of autism for controlled investigations of the neurobiological basis of autistic-like symptoms and individual response to environmental interventions. Our laboratory previously demonstrated in the model that the primary sensory cortical, frontal cortical, and amygdala microcircuits are hyper-functional in the pup, in parallel to excessive conditioned fear responses, over-generalization of fear to non-conditioned stimuli, and resistance to fear extinction, in the adult. Together with the full range of autistic symptoms and increasing evidence for local hyper-functional connections and cortical minicolumnpathy in patients, data from the VPA model inspired the hypothesis of autism as an Intense World Syndrome. The theory proposes that the polygenetic background of each individual sets the threshold for susceptibility to their prenatal and post natal environments. At the event of a biological insult, be it exogenous such as VPA-exposure, or genetic, such as a rare set of polymorphisms, a cascade of molecular events would lead to hyper-plastic and hyper-reactive neural microcircuits creating a hyper-functional endophenotype. Depending on the developmental trajectory of each individual, this would lead to abnormalities in four dimensions: hyper-attention, hyper-memory and hyper-perception, and hyper-emotionality. Different patterns of hyper-functional outcomes in each individual would then create a fragmented, intense and even aversive experience of the world, and explain the wide heterogeneity in symptom severity and most, if not all, characteristics of autistic people. Thus, inherent to the theory is the description of autistic individuals as highly biologically sensitive and thus that a predictable, positive, safe and calm environment is an essential feature of early postnatal life for positive outcomes in the child. For my doctoral dissertation, I addressed if embryonic exposure to VPA in the rat leads to hyper-functional emotion system, and if this leads to differential response of individuals to postnatal environment. In Chapter 1, I introduce the clinical characteristics of autism and the brain systems involved in emotion and cognition through modulation of fear, anxiety learning and memory. Then I introduce the research rationale for this project. In Chapter 2, I present our published manuscript describing physical malformations, and other teratogenic and developmental health effects in the VPA-rat. This study further validates the VPA-rat as a model of effects in humans, and summarizes important outstanding questions in the VPA-model, in view of the variability in protocols for model generation. We emphasize that such general health parameters could serve as indicators of the precise time and location of toxic event, and thus as potential predictors of differential symptom dimensions and severities. In Chapter 3, I present our study of predictability in the environment of VPA animals as an essential feature for beneficial effects of enrichment, on autism-like hyper-emotionality. This study provides an elegant and computationally accessible method for multivariate analysis of group effects and individual-based effects. In support of the Intense World Theory, our results suggest that VPA-exposed animals are particularly sensitive to their environment, and point to the hippocampus and amygdala as candidate targets of environmental enrichment predictability effects in reducing fear and anxiety in certain VPA exposed individuals. Finally, in Chapter 4, I present some concluding remarks on the implications of this project and future perspectives.

EPFL2013

'Peak Oil' As Classical Economic Process

François Meynard

Forecasts about 'peak oil', the limits of oil production, are the subject of controversies. 'Peak oil' forecasts are based on extrapolations of a priori chosen mathematical models fitted to field data. Scientifically that is not very sound. To clarify this point, in this paper 'peak oil' is modelled in a generic reductionist, approach, in which the conflicting dynamic between economic forces and physical laws are well identified. This model finds a natural interpretation just supress in a classical economic analysis frame. The 'peak oil' controversy is thus brought into the field of economic thought as a debate between classical and mainstream economics, in particular between an objective and a faith based appraisal about this historical event. The goal is not to improve forecasts about 'peak oil', which is very likely not a predictable event, but to propose an objective framework for the analysis of its systemic effects on economic production.