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Concept

Loi de probabilité à queue lourde

Résumé

vignette|Long tail. Dans la théorie des probabilités, une loi de probabilité à queue lourde est une loi de probabilité dont les queues ne sont pas exponentiellement bornées, ce qui signifie qu'elles ont des queues plus « lourdes » que la loi exponentielle. Dans de nombreuses applications, c'est la queue droite de la distribution qui est intéressante, mais une distribution peut avoir une queue lourde à gauche, ou les deux queues peuvent être lourdes. Il y a trois sous-classes importantes de lois à queue lourde, les lois à queue épaisse, les lois à longue queue et les lois sous-exponentielles. Dans la pratique, toutes les lois à queue lourde couramment utilisées appartiennent à la classe sous-exponentielle. Définitions Loi à queue lourde La loi d'une variable aléatoire X de fonction de répartition F est dite à queue lourde (à droite) si sa fonction génératrice des moments MX(t), est infinie pour tout t > 0., soit: : \forall

Source officielle

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_de_probabilit%C3%A9_%C3%A0_queue_lourde

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Multiple testing with test statistics following heavy-tailed distributions

Zhiwen Jiang

In multiple testing problems where the components come from a mixture model of noise and true effect, we seek to first test for the existence of the non-zero components, and then identify the true alternatives under a fixed significance level

\alpha

. Two parameters, namely the fraction of the non-null components

\varepsilon

and the size of the effects

\mu

, characterise the two-point mixture model under the global alternative. When the number of hypotheses

m

goes to infinity, we are interested in an asymptotic framework where the fraction of the non-null components is vanishing, and the true effects need to be sizable to be detected. Donoho and Jin give an explicit form of the asymptotic detectable boundary based on the Gaussian mixture model under the classic calibration of the parameters of the mixture model. We prove the analogous results for the Cauchy mixture distribution as an example heavy-tailed case. This requires a different formulation of the parameters, which reflects the added difficulties. We also propose a multiple testing procedure based on a filtering approach that can discover the true alternatives. Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) compare the observed

p

-values to a linear threshold curve and reject the null hypotheses from the minimum up to the last up-crossing, and prove the false discovery rate (FDR) is controlled. However, there is an intrinsic difference in heavy-tailed settings. Were we to use the BH procedure we would get a highly variable positive false discovery rate (pFDR). In our study we analyse the distribution of the

p

-values and devise a new multiple testing procedure to combine the usual case and the heavy-tailed case based on the empirical properties of the

p

-values. The filtering approach is designed to eliminate most

p

-values that are more likely to be uniform, while preserving most of the true alternatives. Based on the filtered

p

-values, we estimate the mode

\vartheta

and define the rejection region

\mathscr{R}(\vartheta, \delta)=\left[ \vartheta -\delta/2, \vartheta +\delta/2 \right]

such that the most informative

p

-values are included. The length

\delta

is chosen by controlling the data-dependent estimation of FDR at a desired level.

EPFL2021

Chargement

Interfaces of the one-dimensional voter models

Samir Brahim Belhaouari

We show that for a voter model on {0,1}Z corresponding to a random walk with kernel p(·) and starting from unanimity to the right and opposing unanimity to the left, a tight interface between 0's and 1's exists if p(·) has second moments but does not if p(·) fails to have α moment for some α < 2. We study the evolution of the interface for the one-dimensional voter model. We show that if the random walk kernel associated with the voter model has finite γth moment for some γ > 3, then the evolution of the interface boundaries converges weakly to a Brownian motion. This extends recent work of Newman, Ravishankar and Sun. Our result is optimal in the sense that a finite γth moment is necessary for this convergence for all γ ∈ (0, 3). We also obtain relatively sharp estimates for the tail distribution of the size of the equilibrium interface, extending earlier results of Cox and Durrett.

EPFL2006

Chargement

in finite sample studies redescending M-estimators outperform bounded M-estimators (see for example, Andrews et al. [1972. Robust Estimates of Location. Princeton University Press, Princeton]). Even though redescenders arise naturally out of the maximum likelihood approach if one uses very heavy-tailed models, the commonly used redescenders have been derived from purely heuristic considerations. Using a recent approach proposed by Shurygin, we study the optimality of redescending M-estimators. We show that redescending M-estimator can be designed by applying a global minimax criterion to locally robust estimators, namely maximizing over a class of densities the minimum variance sensitivity over a class of estimators. As a particular result, we prove that Smith's estimator, which is a compromise between Huber's skipped mean and Tukey's biweight, provides a guaranteed level of an estimator's variance sensitivity over the class of densities with a bounded variance. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elsevier2008

Chargement

Multiple testing with test statistics following heavy-tailed distributions

Zhiwen Jiang

\alpha

. Two parameters, namely the fraction of the non-null components

\varepsilon

and the size of the effects

\mu

, characterise the two-point mixture model under the global alternative. When the number of hypotheses

m

p

p

-values and devise a new multiple testing procedure to combine the usual case and the heavy-tailed case based on the empirical properties of the

p

-values. The filtering approach is designed to eliminate most

p

-values that are more likely to be uniform, while preserving most of the true alternatives. Based on the filtered

p

-values, we estimate the mode

\vartheta

and define the rejection region

\mathscr{R}(\vartheta, \delta)=\left[ \vartheta -\delta/2, \vartheta +\delta/2 \right]

such that the most informative

p

-values are included. The length

\delta

is chosen by controlling the data-dependent estimation of FDR at a desired level.

EPFL2021