Indépendance (probabilités)

Résumé

vignette|Paire de dés L'indépendance est une notion probabiliste qualifiant de manière intuitive des événements aléatoires n'ayant aucune influence l'un sur l'autre. Il s'agit d'une notion très importante en statistique et en théorie des probabilités. Par exemple, la valeur d'un premier lancer de dés n'a aucune influence sur la valeur du second lancer. De même, pour un lancer, le fait dobtenir une valeur inférieure ou égale à quatre n'influe en rien sur la probabilité que le résultat soit pair ou impair : les deux événements sont dits indépendants. L'indépendance ou non de deux événements n'est pas toujours facile à établir. Indépendance de deux événements La définition mathématique de l'indépendance de deux événements est la suivante : La définition mathématique ci-dessus est assez peu parlante. Le lien entre le concept intuitif d'indépendance et la ci-dessus apparaît plus clairement si l'on introduit la notion de probabilité conditionnelle : En excluant les cas parti

Source officielle

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ind%C3%A9pendance_(probabilit%C3%A9s)

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La théorie des probabilités en mathématiques est l'étude des phénomènes caractérisés par le hasard et l'incertitude. Elle forme avec la statistique les deux sciences du hasard qui sont partie intégr

vignette|La valeur d’un dé après un lancer est une variable aléatoire comprise entre 1 et 6. En théorie des probabilités, une variable aléatoire est une variable dont la valeur est déterminée après la

thumb|400px 3 répartitions.png En théorie des probabilités et en statistique, une loi de probabilité décrit le comportement aléatoire d'un phénomène dépendant du hasard. L'étude des phénomènes aléa

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This thesis is devoted to the derivation of error estimates for partial differential equations with random input data, with a focus on a posteriori error estimates which are the basis for adaptive strategies. Such procedures aim at obtaining an approximation of the solution with a given precision while minimizing the computational costs. If several sources of error come into play, it is then necessary to balance them to avoid unnecessary work. We are first interested in problems that contain small uncertainties approximated by finite elements. The use of perturbation techniques is appropriate in this setting since only few terms in the power series expansion of the exact random solution with respect to a parameter characterizing the amount of randomness in the problem are required to obtain an accurate approximation. The goal is then to perform an error analysis for the finite element approximation of the expansion up to a certain order. First, an elliptic model problem with random diffusion coefficient with affine dependence on a vector of independent random variables is studied. We give both a priori and a posteriori error estimates for the first term in the expansion for various norms of the error. The results are then extended to higher order approximations and to other sources of uncertainty, such as boundary conditions or forcing term. Next, the analysis of nonlinear problems in random domains is proposed, considering the one-dimensional viscous Burgers' equation and the more involved incompressible steady-state Navier-Stokes equations. The domain mapping method is used to transform the equations in random domains into equations in a fixed reference domain with random coefficients. We give conditions on the mapping and the input data under which we can prove the well-posedness of the problems and give a posteriori error estimates for the finite element approximation of the first term in the expansion. Finally, we consider the heat equation with random Robin boundary conditions. For this parabolic problem, the time discretization brings an additional source of error that is accounted for in the error analysis. The second part of this work consists in the analysis of a random elliptic diffusion problem that is approximated in the physical space by the finite element method and in the stochastic space by the stochastic collocation method on a sparse grid. Considering a random diffusion coefficient with affine dependence on a vector of independent random variables, we derive a residual-based a posteriori error estimate that controls the two sources of error. The stochastic error estimator is then used to drive an adaptive sparse grid algorithm which aims at alleviating the so-called curse of dimensionality inherent to tensor grids. Several numerical examples are given to illustrate the performance of the adaptive procedure.

EPFL2016

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Testing for mutual independence among several random vectors is a challenging problem, and in recent years, it has gained significant attention in statistics and machine learning literature. Most of the existing tests of independence deal with only two random vectors, and they do not have straightforward generalizations for testing mutual independence among more than two random vectors of arbitrary dimensions. On the other hand, there are various tests for mutual independence among several random variables, but these univariate tests do not have natural multivariate extensions. In this article, we propose two general recipes, one based on inter-point distances and the other based on linear projections, for multivariate extensions of these univariate tests. Under appropriate regularity conditions, these resulting tests turn out to be consistent whenever we have consistency for the corresponding univariate tests. We carry out extensive numerical studies to compare the empirical performance of these proposed methods with the state-of-the-art methods.

SPRINGER2020

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Testing mutual independence among several random vectors of arbitrary dimensions is a challenging problem in Statistics, and it has gained considerable interest in recent years. In this article, we propose some nonparametric tests based on different notions of ranks of nearest neighbour. These proposed tests can be conveniently used for high dimensional data, even when the dimensions of the random vectors are larger than the sample size. We investigate the performance of these tests on several simulated and real data sets and also use them in identifying causal relationships among the random vectors. Our numerical results show that they can outperform state-of-the-art tests in a wide variety of examples.

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD2021

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EPFL2016