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Concept
Decision model
Résumé
A decision model in decision theory is the starting point for a decision method within a formal (axiomatic) system. Decision models contain at least one action axiom.
An action is in the form "IF is true, THEN do ". An action axiom tests a condition (antecedent) and, if the condition has been met, then (consequent) it suggests (mandates) an action: from knowledge to action. A decision model may also be a network of connected decisions, information and knowledge that represents a decision-making approach that can be used repeatedly (such as one developed using the Decision Model and Notation standard).
Excepting very simple situations, successful action axioms are used in an iterative manner. For example, for decision analysis, the sole action axiom occurs in the Evaluation stage of a four-step cycle: Formulate, Evaluate, Interpret/Appraise, Refine. Decision models are used both to model a decision being made once, as well as to model a repeatable decision-making approach that will be used over and over again.
Formulation is the first and often most challenging stage in using formal decision methods (and in decision analysis in particular). The objective of the formulation stage is to develop a formal model of the given decision. This may be represented as a network of decision-making elements, as a decision tree or in other ways depending on the specific situation. The formulation may be conceptual or may include all the necessary decision logic (business rules) required to define the decision-making.
Evaluation is the second and most algorithmic stage in using formal decision methods. For a decision being made once, the objective of the evaluation stage is to produce a formal recommendation (and its associated sensitivities) from a formal model of the decision situation. For a repeatable decision evaluation occurs each time the decision is made by applying the decision model that has been developed.
Appraisal is the third and most insightful stage in using formal decision methods.
Source officielle
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Decision intelligence
Decision intelligence is an engineering discipline that augments data science with theory from social science, decision theory, and managerial science. Its application provides a framework for best practices in organizational decision-making and processes for applying machine learning at scale. The basic idea is that decisions are based on our understanding of how actions lead to outcomes. Decision intelligence is a discipline for analyzing this chain of cause and effect, and decision modeling is a visual language for representing these chains.
Decision analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision; and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, and other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders.
Prise de décision
vignette|Lorsqu'il s'agit de prendre une décision, il est bon de savoir que des situations différentes nécessitent une approche différente. Il n'y a pas de façon unique de penser/d'agir. la plupart du temps, nous errons dans l'espace du désordre, sans savoir ce qui se passe, sans savoir comment agir. Dans ce cas, nous avons tendance à entrer dans l'espace avec lequel nous nous sentons le plus à l'aise et à commencer à agir. Lorsque vous avez trouvé le Saint Graal, la solution unique pour chaque problème, vous feriez mieux de faire attention.
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