Théorème central limite | EPFL Graph Search

thumb|upright=2|La loi normale, souvent appelée la « courbe en cloche ». Le théorème central limite (aussi appelé théorème limite central, théorème de la limite centrale ou théorème de la limite centrée) établit la convergence en loi de la somme d'une suite de variables aléatoires vers la loi normale. Intuitivement, ce résultat affirme qu'une somme de variables aléatoires indépendantes et identiquement distribuées tend (le plus souvent) vers une variable aléatoire gaussienne. Ce théorème et ses généralisations offrent une explication de l'omniprésence de la loi normale dans la nature : de nombreux phénomènes sont dus à l'addition d'un grand nombre de petites perturbations aléatoires. Histoire Histoire de la démonstration La première démonstration de ce théorème, publiée en 1809, est due à Pierre-Simon de Laplace, mais le cas particulier où les variables suivent la loi de Bernoulli de paramètre p = 0,5 était connu depuis les travaux de De Moivre, en 1733.

Statistical Applications of Random Matrix Theory: Comparison of Two Populations

Rémy Mariétan

During the last twenty years, Random matrix theory (RMT) has produced numerous results that allow a better understanding of large random matrices. These advances have enabled interesting applications in the domain of communication. Although this theory can contribute to many other domains such as brain imaging or genetic research, its has been rarely applied. The main barrier to the adoption of RMT may be the lack of concrete statistical results from probabilistic Random matrix theory. Indeed, direct generalisation of classical multivariate theory to high dimensional assumptions is often difficult and the proposed procedures often assume strong hypotheses on the data matrix such as normality or overly restrictive independence conditions on the data. This thesis proposes a statistical procedure for testing the equality of two independent estimated covariance matrices when the number of potentially dependent data vectors is large and proportional to the size of the vectors corresponding to the number of observed variables. Although the existing theory builds a very good intuition of the behaviour of these matrices, it does not provide enough results to build a satisfactory test for both the power and the robustness. Hence, inspired by spike models, we define the residual spikes and prove many theorems describing the behaviour of many statistics using eigenvectors and eigenvalues in very general cases. For example in the two central theorems of this thesis, the Invariant Angle Theorem and the Invariant Dot Product Theorem. Using numerous generalisations of the theory, this thesis finally proposes a description of the behaviour of a statistic under a null hypothesis. This statistic allows the user to test the equality of two populations, but also other null hypotheses such as the independence of two sets of variables. Finally, the robustness of the procedure is demonstrated for different classes of models and criteria for evaluating robustness are proposed to the reader. Therefore, the major contribution of this thesis is to propose a methodology both easy to apply and having good properties. Secondly, a large number of theoretical results are demonstrated and could be easily used to build other applications.

EPFL2019

Limit Behaviour of the Voter Model, Exclusion Process and Regenerative Chains

Samuel Schöpfer

Though the following topics seem unlinked, most of the tools used in this thesis are related to random walks and renewal theory. After introducing the voter model, we consider the parabolic Anderson model with the voter model as catalyst. In GÄRTNER, DEN HOLLANDER and MAILLARD [44], the behaviour of the annealed Lyapunov exponents, i.e., the exponential growth rates of the successive moments of the reactant with respect to the catalyst, was investigated. It was shown that these exponents exhibit an interesting dependence on the dimension and on the diffusion constant. In Chapter 3 we address some questions left open in this paper by considering specifically when the Lyapunov exponents are the a priori maximal value. Then, we use exclusion process techniques to show that the evolution of a perturbed threshold voter model is recurrent in the critical case. The key to our approach is to develop the ideas of BRAMSON and MOUNTFORD [9] : we exhibit a Lyapunov-Foster function for the discrete time version of the process. We also make a widespread use of coupling arguments. Finally, using the regenerative scheme of COMETS, FERNÁNDEZ and FERRARI [19], we establish a functional central limit theorem for discrete time stochastic processes with summable memory decay. Furthermore, under stronger assumptions on the memory decay, we identify the limiting variance in terms of the process only. As applications, we define classes of binary autoregressive processes and power-law Ising chains for which the limit theorem is fulfilled.

EPFL2012

Fourier Analysis of Functional Time Series, with Applications to DNA Dynamics

Shahin Tavakoli

This work is about time series of functional data (functional time series), and consists of three main parts. In the first part (Chapter 2), we develop a doubly spectral decomposition for functional time series that generalizes the Karhunen–Loève expansion. In the second part (Chapter 3), we develop the theory of estimation for the spectral density operators, which are the main tool involved in the doubly spectral decomposition. The third part (Chapter 4) is concerned with the problem of understanding and comparing the dynamics of DNA. It proposes a methodology for comparing the dynamics of DNA minicircles that are vibrating in solution, using tools developed in this thesis. In the first part, we develop a doubly spectral representation of a stationary functional time series that generalizes the Karhunen–Loève expansion to the functional time series setting. The representation decomposes the time series into an integral of uncorrelated frequency components (Cramér representation), each of which is in turn expanded in a Karhunen-Loève series, thus yielding a Cramér–Karhunen–Loève decomposition of the series. The construction is based on the spectral density operators—whose Fourier coefficients are the lag-t autocovariance operators—which characterise the second-order dynamics of the process. The spectral density operators are the functional analogues of the spectral density matrices, whose eigenvalues and eigenfunctions at different frequencies provide the building blocks of the representation. By truncating the representation at a finite level, we obtain a harmonic principal component analysis of the time series, an optimal finite dimensional reduction of the time series that captures both the temporal dynamics of the process, and the within-curve dynamics, and dominates functional PCA. The proofs rely on the construction of a stochastic integral of operator-valued functions, whose construction is similar to that of the Itô integral. In practice, the spectral density operators are unknown. In the second part, we therefore develop the basic theory of a frequency domain framework for drawing statistical inferences on the spectral density operators of a stationary functional time series. Our main tool is the functional Discrete Fourier Transform(fDFT).We derive an asymptotic Gaussian representation of the fDFT, thus allowing the transformation of the original collection of dependent random functions into a collection of approximately independent complex-valued Gaussian random functions. Our results are then employed in order to construct estimators of the spectral density operators based on smoothed versions of the periodogram kernel, the functional generalisation of the periodogram matrix. The consistency and asymptotic law of these estimators are studied in detail. As immediate consequences, we obtain central limit theorems for the mean and the long-run covariance operator of a stationary functional time series. Our results do not depend on structural modeling assumptions, but only functional versions of classical cumulant mixing conditions. The effect of discrete noisy observations on the consistency of the estimators is studied in a framework general enough to apply to a wide range of smoothing techniques for converting discrete noisy observations into functional data. We also perform a simulation study to assess the finite sample performance of our estimators, and give a discussion of the technical assumptions of our results, and at what cost our weak dependence assumptions could be changed or weakened, and provide examples of processes satisfying the technical assumptions of our asymptotic results. As an application, we consider in the third part the problem of comparing the dynamics of the trajectories of two DNA minicircles that are vibrating in solution, which are obtained via Molecular Dynamics simulations. The approach we take is to view and compare the dynamics through their spectral density operators, which contain the entire second-order structure of the trajectories. As a first step, we compare the spectral density operators of the two DNA minicircles using a new test we develop, which allows us to compare the spectral density operators at a fixed frequencies. Using multiple testing procedures, we are able to localize in frequencies the differences in spectral density operators of the two DNA minicircles, while controlling a type-I error, and conduct numerical simulations to assess the performance of our method. We further investigate the differences between the two minicircles by comparing their spectral density operators within frequencies. This allows us to localize their differences both in frequencies and on the minicircles, while controlling the averaged false discovery rate over the selected frequencies. Our methodology is general enough to be applied to the comparison of the dynamics of any pair of stationary functional time series.

EPFL2014